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I recently read a blog post about the probabilities of rolling up a character that would meet the requirements for all of the different classes in first edition Dungeons and Dragons. I'd love to read it again, but I can't find it. Can anyone give me a link to it?

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By "first edition D&D" do you mean AD&D 1st Edition? (D&D edition names are confusing—there is more than one "first" edition since there were multiple lines, and the lines were redefined over time.) –  SevenSidedDie Jan 21 '13 at 1:55
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4 Answers

http://home.earthlink.net/~duanevp/dnd/stat_generation.htm

Might this article be of help? It has a fairly large portion dedicated to AD&D 1e, though doesn't seem as class-centric as you may like.

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The one I was looking for had the probability listed for each class. –  Curyous Mar 11 '12 at 22:38
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Link? No. But... I can do the requirements for them and work the figures out.

Rounding to 0.01% increments.

9+ is 160/216
12+ is 81/216
13+ is 56/216
14+ is 35/216
15+ is 20/216
17+ is 4/216

Original D&D Rules Bk1

Fighter: No requirements. 100%
Cleric: No requirements. 100%
Magic User: No requirements. 100%

Original D&D Rules, including Supplements 1 & 2

Fighter: No requirements. 100%
Cleric: No requirements. 100%
Magic User: No requirements. 100%
Thief: No Requirements. 100%
Monk: Str 12 (81/216), Wis 15 (20/216), Dex 15 (20/216). 32,400/10,077,696 = 0.32%
Assassin: Str 12, Int 12, Dex 12 (81/216 ea) 531,441/10,077,696 = 5.27%
Paladin: Cha 17 (4/216) = 1.85%

Moldvay/Cook BX

Fighter: No requirements. 100%
Cleric: No requirements. 100%
Magic User: No requirements. 100%
Thief: No Requirements. 100%
Dwarf: Con 9 74.07%
Elf: Int 9 74.07%
Halfling: Dex 9, Con 9 25,600/46,656 54.87%

AD&D 1E

My AD&D 1E stuff is packed, but I can do the math if someone posts the requirements by class.

AD&D 2E

Fighter: Str 9 160/216 = 74%
Paladin: Str 12, Con 9, Wis 13, Cha 17 = 81*160*56*4/216^4 = 2,903,040/2,176,782,336 0.13%
Ranger: Str 13, Dex 13, Con 14, Wis 14 = 56*56*35*35 = 3,841,600/2,176,782,336 0.18%
Mage: Int 9 = 160/216 = 74%
Cleric: Wis 9 = 160/216 = 74%
Druid: Wis 12, Cha 15 = 81*20/216^2 = 1,620/46,656 = 3.47%
Thief: Dex 9 160/216 = 74%
Bard: Dex 12, Int 13, Cha 15 = 81*56*20/216^3 = 90,720/10,077,696 = 9%
Fails to make any class: Str ≤8, Dex ≤8, Int ≤8, Wis ≤8 = 56*56*56*56/216^4 = 0.45%

AD&D 2E using 4d6k3

No   =N       ≥N
 3   1/1296 1296/1296
 4   4/1296 1295/1296
 5  10/1296 1291/1296
 6  21/1296 1281/1296
 7  38/1296 1260/1296
 8  62/1296 1222/1296
 9  91/1296 1160/1296
10 122/1296 1069/1296
11 148/1296  947/1296
12 167/1296  799/1296
13 172/1296  632/1296
14 160/1296  460/1296
15 131/1296  300/1296
16  94/1296  169/1296
17  54/1296   75/1296
18  21/1296   21/1296

Fighter: Str 9 1160/1296 = 89.51%
Paladin: Str 12, Con 9, Wis 13, Cha 17 = 799*1160*632*75/1296^4 = 1.56%
Ranger: Str 13, Dex 13, Con 14, Wis 14 = 632*632*460*460 2.99%
Mage: Int 9 1160/1296 = 89.51%
Cleric: Wis 9 1160/1296 = 89.51%
Druid: Wis 12, Cha 15 799*300/1296^2 = 14.27%
Thief: Dex 9 1160/1296 = 89.51%
Bard: Dex 12, Int 13, Cha 15 = 799*632*300/1296^3 = 6.96%
Fails to make any class: Str ≤8, Dex ≤8, Int ≤8, Wis ≤8 = 74*74*74*74/1296^4 = 0.001%

AD&D 2E. Place as desired

3d6 each - Fighter, Cleric, Wizard, Thief: 1-(56^6/216^6)= 99.97%

4d6k3 each - Fighter, Cleric, Wizard, Thief: 1-(74^6/1296^6)= 99.99%

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Yep. 3d6 sort as you like makes for some slightly different numbers, for which I'd need to write and run a bit of software... I COULD, but I'm not going to. Note that, for OE, OE+S1/2, and BX, the other methods are not in the rules. And running the couple million permutations for a 3d6 place as desired would take more time than I'm willing to use on my computer. –  aramis Mar 12 '12 at 12:52
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Is this what you were looking for?

http://axiscity.hexamon.net/users/isomage/rpgmath/qualify/

It covers the probability of rolling various classes based on minimum requirements, for a couple of different dice rolling methods, e.g. 3d6 any order vs 3d6 ordered.

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If that's not the link they were looking for, it still definitely answers the question. +1! –  SevenSidedDie Jan 21 '13 at 1:57
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I think that the blog post you were thinking of is this one on The Mule Abides. I apologize that it has been so long since you asked, but I only just found this while looking for that post myself.

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Welcome to the site! Please take a look at the tour and the help; they're a useful introduction to the site. Could you please add a little description of the link's content? Although the OP was just asking for a link, it's good if an answer is still moderately useful if the link goes dead. And once you have 20+ rep, feel free to join the chat! –  BESW Sep 6 '13 at 4:42
    
The date and data fit. –  SevenSidedDie Sep 6 '13 at 5:08
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