The short answer is No
First, as Scrollmaster points out, no version of D&D attempts to accurately simulate anything. Putting aside the sheer existence of magic, it is really focused more on presenting interesting tactical decisions and an interesting world to explore and tell stories in.
Now, you mentioned fencing and talked about the probabilities there. One area where odds can be calculated highly accurately and that has been studied for a long time is ratings for games of pure skill like Chess and Go. Chess uses the Elo rating system and you can calculate relatively accurately the odds of who will win based on the Elo ratings of the players involved. If they are equally rated, it should be about 50-50. If there is a 100 point difference, the higher rated player is expected to win about 64% of the time. This system is reasonably accurate as long as there is enough history for both players to calculate an accurate and up to date ranking.
But the thing is that Elo ratings are only very loosely correlated with experience as measured in years. In fact, one of the highest rated players in the world right now is 22. Now, if you look at "Elo" as "level" than it is true you can calculate the odds of winning based on the difference in "level" but that should be thought of as "experience" in only the loosest sense. Someone who has been playing for two years but studied intensely, worked hard, perhaps had a natural aptitude (if you believe in that) and has a high Elo rating will find someone who has played casually for 40 years to be little difficulty.