Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games.

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1answer
109 views

Are there any guides for using Statistical Analysis for RPG optimization?

I've got a light background in statistical analysis for project management, but I've never applied statistics to analyze RPGs or games for that matter at all. I'm looking to compare options within ...
2
votes
1answer
138 views

Help Needed With Probability Math for 2d10 [closed]

In my Old School D&D campaign, I instituted a house rule to help the PCs raise their ability scores. Each ability score has a "fractional ability score". This is a percentile rating that starts at ...
4
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2answers
341 views

How much is a Second roll worth in Modifier Bonus

That is to say, the value of a second roll, how much of a bonus value is it worth. For example: when you make a saving throw, attack or check roll, when does +bonus to the roll and rolling twice ...
3
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1answer
89 views

How do I calculate the chance of hits?

(I do not know if I should post this in math.stackexchange.com, so I try to phrase it in a way that it makes sense for non-roleplayers. Just in case it gets moved) In the latest two editions of ...
4
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3answers
174 views

Calculating dice pool probability with limited rerolls

I need a probability calculation script that works with various dice and dice pool sizes, that accounts for a mechanic that allows you to reroll up to X dice that are failures, but ONLY once per die. ...
2
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1answer
69 views

How to address Damage/Toughness bias in M&M Tradeoffs

The Basic Problem Right, Mutants and Masterminds is a True20 system where everything is resolved via rolling a d20. Attacks are made by rolling a d20 and adding the attack bonus, trying to match or ...
6
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5answers
626 views

How I figure what dice I need to attain a certain curve? [closed]

I want to make character stats that fit within certain bell curves depending on choices during character creation (for example race, gender, class, sprokets amount, whatever). And I am wondering how ...
14
votes
2answers
292 views

Roll For Shoes - Does the advancement system work for longer campaigns?

I'm about to start in on a new campaign with the Roll For Shoes system, but I'm concerned that the characters will swiftly outstrip basic and intermediate challenges as they grow in dice. In the ...
7
votes
2answers
520 views

How can I convert D&D Next Saving Throws into Defences?

In the last public playtest packet, saving throws for spells had the following formula: The DC was set to 8 + prof bonus + magical stat bonus. The target would then throw a saving throw, adding their ...
0
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1answer
64 views

Would I change my characteristics on my character sheet after picking a home world in Rogue Trader?

I am wondering because lets say I rolled the Stats 34 WS 41 BS 38 S 33 T 40 Ag 30 Int 34 Per 40 WP and 36 Fel If i picked the Hive World as my starting world I would get -5 T and +5 Fel, would I ...
9
votes
2answers
334 views

How can I model Burning Wheel probabilities in AnyDice?

I have a basic intuition about dice in Burning Wheel, but it's handy to be able to look at actual probability distributions to hone your intuition. Especially since important rolls can involve ...
3
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6answers
229 views

A system that models improved threat range of critical misses?

Have you ever fumbled with a flail? It sucks, especially when you are first learning it. It can happen very often; Sometimes in such a terrible way it far surpasses the risk of swinging a staff, hands ...
6
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1answer
223 views

Are there statistics of the more played games?

Looking the questions of this site, it seems that D&D, in all its versions and variants, is by far the most played game. But that's not quite true in the people I know, so I think the proportions ...
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2answers
211 views

What is the probability for a thousand with 3 D10

I'm trying to figure out what is the probability with 3 D10's if I were to roll them one after another."001" is one and "000" is a thousand. Would every number have the same probability or doubles and ...
30
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7answers
2k views

Is it possible to produce a bowl-shaped probability curve with dice rolls?

In D&D's basic D20 system, you roll one d20 and add in some modifiers, then compare the result to a target number. Each modifier effectively adds or removes a 5% chance of success with the roll. ...
39
votes
3answers
4k views

How does rolling two dice and taking the highest affect the average outcome?

I've read that the D&D 5E playtest has an "advantage" concept where instead of rolling 1d20, you roll 2d20 and take the highest. Likewise, disadvantage means rolling 2d20 and taking the lowest. ...
6
votes
4answers
343 views

Can the astrology helping die decrease the chance of success?

Astrology can help most tests, but has a chance of actually taking away a success from the roll, thought it is unlikely. Ignoring the fiction and focusing only on the rules, is there any situation ...
11
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3answers
2k views

What's the probability curve of the D10 Storytelling System?

Recently a friend commented that he thought the dice pool in the d10 Storytelling System actually gave mediocre results, and that by increasing the number of dice thrown you were actually decreasing ...
11
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4answers
490 views

Chances of rolling up characters for classes in first edition Dungeons and Dragons

I recently read a blog post about the probabilities of rolling up a character that would meet the requirements for all of the different classes in first edition Dungeons and Dragons. I'd love to read ...
1
vote
0answers
151 views

Are there any mathematical tools to study ''RPG'' video games? [closed]

Lately, I have been interested in the various patterns I see in a genre of video games called ''role-playing'' games. I am analyzing very simple cases at the moment and I was wondering if there are ...
7
votes
3answers
426 views

What is the expected average damage for an area of effect power?

I have spent quite a bit of time coming up with an average damage document for my party and for several other characters. However, the one thing I have not been able to represent well is the average ...
6
votes
2answers
772 views

Polyhedral dice statistics program, spreadsheet, or document [closed]

Does anyone know of a program that does statistical analysis on dice rolls, or a document of tables for the same? I am looking mainly for statistics other than d6 (which are very common in most ...
4
votes
2answers
610 views

Explain why Ubiquity doesn't have an asymmetrical bell curve like most dice pool systems?

A post on Pen and Paper Games forum states that the Ubiquity system does not have an asymmetrical bell curve as other dice pool systems typically do (like the D6 system). Where can I find this ...
4
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2answers
365 views

What is the formula for average damage for an Avenger against an Oath target?

I am creating a spreadsheet to compute average damage for my party. One of the issues that I am having is calculating average damage for the target of our Hybrid Avenger-Assassin's Avenger attacks ...
7
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5answers
375 views

Measuring complexity in 4e characters?

This google doc contains my current work. I am working on a set of quantifiers that can reliably compare complexity between two different characters. At present, I've operationalized 5 factors: ...
8
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1answer
877 views

Average attack bonus of a 30th level character in DnD 4e

What is the average attack of 30th level D&D character? (Of course this number must be calculated without uber-strong homebrew items). My real question is this: What is the average chance of ...
16
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6answers
2k views

Earthdawn dice roll probabilities

After ad-hoc running Misguided Ambitions with my regular DnD 4E group - because one guy was MIA - I had a discussion with one of the players about Earthdawn's dice mechanics. The player argued that ...
45
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11answers
6k views

3d6 vs a d20: What is the effect of a different probability curve?

What is the effect on game play of replacing d20 rolls with 3d6 rolls in a D&D 4e campaign? I started thinking about this after reading this question where the example was given of playing a d20 ...
15
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6answers
2k views

What is the statistically superior character creation method, twelve 3d6 or six 4d6?

The D&D 3.5 Player's Handbook gives (among others) two preferred methods to roll ability scores for a new character: a) roll 3d6 twelve times and keep the preferred six results, or b) roll 4d6 and ...