Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games.

learn more… | top users | synonyms (1)

0
votes
0answers
105 views

What is the average lifespan of an adventurer? [closed]

Let us assume that player characters (PCs) represent typical adventurers. Let's also assume that if a PC doesn't die "on screen", ie. while they are being played, they life to the average life ...
5
votes
1answer
85 views

How can I get the highest or lowest values of an irregular dice pool in AnyDice?

I want to calculate irregular dice pools, such as (2d10, 1d8) in AnyDice, but I'm having difficulties. What I mean to do is out of a roll of 2d10 and a 1d8, take the highest (or lowest) two values ...
5
votes
3answers
223 views

How to compare hit % and damage between 1 attack vs 4 attacks with disadvantage?

Quite a few scenarios here, wish my AnyDice fu were up to par—if it's too much, no need to cover all of them, just the most representative, so I can figure out the rest. For the given character ...
3
votes
4answers
560 views

How do I calculate the chance to hit a given AC?

My current level 2 variant Ranger has the Sharpshooter Feat. His hit modifier is normally +7, but with Sharpshooter it's +2 (due to the −5). I am wondering what the % based chance to hit is ...
3
votes
2answers
119 views

What circumstances make Heighten Turning worthwhile?

The feat Heighten Turning has the following as part of its benefit: When you turn or rebuke undead, you may choose a number no higher than your cleric level. Add that number to your turning check, ...
21
votes
4answers
3k views

Is giving one side advantage always equivalent to giving disadvantage to the opponent?

Sometimes, players get advantage; sometimes, monsters get disadvantage. Sometimes it's not clear whether to give someone advantage or his opponent disadvantage, especially in improvised contests (PHB ...
3
votes
1answer
123 views

Bulldogs! Gear damage vs. accuracy

I'm looking at ways to model weapons for my setting, and I like quite a few things what the Bulldogs! system does. Basically, it's a system that has Fate's Damage Floor (+Damage) combined with a ...
1
vote
1answer
93 views

Help calculating opposing dice pool in AnyDice

I need to calculate the probability of A winning against B. Both A and B throw 1-15 d6s, the one with more successful dice (SD) wins. There are actually 5 possibles outcomes: CF: A's SD < B's ...
0
votes
1answer
206 views

Concerns about a dice-pool system [closed]

I'm writing "yet another rpg system" and I'm choosing a way to determine success. I'd like a dice pool mechanic, and I've come up with this. PCs have characteristics and abilities. Char. Mods will ...
0
votes
2answers
176 views

Multiclassing in 3.5e (epic level)

I've started making a character for my first epic level campaign, and I need to know how to add up your BAB in higher levels. I understand that (for example) a +6/+1 BAB and a +2 BAB make a total of ...
-3
votes
2answers
113 views

What's the probability formula for succeeding at a Complex Skill Check? [closed]

The SRD page for Complex Skill Checks gives percentage numbers for a number of different scenarios. For example, if the required roll on a 1d20 is 2, the chance of success on a simple check is 95% ...
1
vote
1answer
141 views

Calculating 6D6 similar to poker dice [closed]

I keep coming back to the idea of building a game system around a 6D6 roll, taking matching sets of numbers and 'straits' as measures of effect. This guarantees that something always turns up (as the ...
16
votes
8answers
4k views

Can I substitute a d3 with a d6?

I don't have a lot of dice yet, just a basic set of polyhedral dice: 1d4 1d6 1d8 2d10 1d12 1d20 Sometimes an ability or save calls for a die that I don't have. Strike, Unarmed [...] ...
6
votes
2answers
978 views

Are Half-Elves immune to the paralyzing property of a Ghoul's Claw action?

The Ghoul's Claw attack in the Monster Manual (p.148) has the rider of forcing a save or paralyzing a creature if the target: ... is a creature other than an elf or undead ... My question is ...
0
votes
5answers
964 views

Does a roleplaying game that uses continuous probability exist?

I have an idea for a roleplaying game that uses continuous probability distributions (like the normal distribution) to decide random outcomes (instead of discrete distributions that comes from using ...
1
vote
0answers
197 views

Are there any RPGs with an insane amount of stats? [closed]

Are there any RPGs with a ridiculous amount of stats? I'm not looking for an enjoyable play experience, just a game with many stats to see how crazy and complicated it is. (The reason being I want ...
8
votes
2answers
329 views

What is the average roll of a die with an expanded explosion threshold as compared to one with an expanded success threshold?

This is going to be a bit of a weird question, but I'm figuring dice pool probabilities for a homebrew system and I want to know how certain abilities should be priced regarding their use. The basic ...
1
vote
1answer
153 views

How Do You Determine Static Statistics of Creatures?

I am writing stat blocks for creatures in a D&D module that I am working on with a friend. I am the designer, not the DM and I need to determine static stats for some creatures. Exempli gratia, a ...
7
votes
8answers
2k views

How do I approach the probability of a d100, using 2 d100's?

We're running an almost 100% homebrew system, which uses skills in order to craft objects during play. Allow me to first formulate an example to explain my question better: Jack is quite the mason ...
6
votes
1answer
657 views

Dice pool success probability with one exploding die

I'm looking for the math behind the following: Players have a pool of 3–11 d6s, and have to get from 1–4 successes, "success" being a roll of 5+. One of these dice is special (represented ...
2
votes
1answer
149 views

Can you roll dice pool or multiple dice rolls with only one dice?

Say I'm playing Vampire: The Requiem and I need to roll 5 d10's. Can I roll a d10 5 times instead of having 5 d10's? Can I split it up if I must, so if I only had 4 d10's could I roll the 4, then roll ...
3
votes
3answers
407 views

What's the probability of getting three matching faces in any one roll of four Fudge dice?

I'm having a little difficulty recalling the procedure for calculating probability of dice results. My question is, using 4 Fudge d6 dice, what is the probability of getting three of any result in one ...
1
vote
5answers
1k views

How to calculate the expected damage increase from Empowered Spell?

In D&D 5th Edition the Sorcerer Metamagic ability Empowered Spell states the following: "When you roll damage for a spell, you can spend 1 sorcery point to reroll a number of the damage dice up ...
4
votes
3answers
236 views

What is the average outcome of this opposed roll resolution mechanic?

Trying to work out the average number of successes for an opposed roll using the following system but can't quite seem to get it to work in Anydice Roll (3d6-5)+Stat+Skill+Modifier 3 6s = crit, ...
2
votes
1answer
249 views

Can you choose when to use your lower Base Attack Bonus?

I have a fighter level 10. She uses two-weapon fighting. With her BAB at 10/5, she has a total of 3 attacks during a full round attack correct? Also does her off hand attack receive the BAB of 10? ...
18
votes
4answers
7k views

How much damage does Great Weapon Fighting add on average?

The Great Weapon Fighting Fighting style states the following: When you roll a 1 or 2 on a damage die for an attack you make with a melee weapon that you are wielding with two hands, you can ...
7
votes
0answers
809 views

Probabilities using 3d10 as 1d1000 [duplicate]

I'm trying to use anydice to figure out the probabilities of the various values of 1d1000 rolled on 3d10. I want to know stuff like "what's the chance of rolling 900 or higher? How about 950 or ...
2
votes
1answer
152 views

How do you calculate the odds of success for an ability contest

I'm having a hard time understanding how to figure out the odds of success from an ability contest. I originally thought that each +1 would be 5% but anydice suggests 4% but only after a +1 ...
0
votes
2answers
777 views

How do you calculate an average damage when damage is conditional on circumstances?

I'm trying to compare two rogue builds to each other. The first rogue is easy. It's a wood elf with a long bow in a wilderness campaign, doing 1d8+mod damage and always being hidden with SA damage. ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

How do I calculate dice probability in the A Song of Ice and Fire system?

Say I need a net hit of 20 or higher. I get to roll 5d6 base, but I get a bonus dice roll of +3. I only get to keep the 5 highest so I would be rolling "8d6 drop lowest 3 rolls" I want to know what ...
7
votes
3answers
759 views

Considering Complex Dice Roll Probabilities

Hoping someone more math and excel/troll/anydice competent than I can help me out. I've long been considering implementing some Dungeon World style die roll mechanics into D&D. With Next about ...
8
votes
3answers
2k views

How can I get AnyDice to determine these odds?

After looking at AnyDice's Documentation and Function Library, I remain baffled. I know that AnyDice can do this, but I don't know how to tell it to. Scott Gray's Dice Pool Generator is easier to use ...
7
votes
1answer
176 views

Are there any guides for using Statistical Analysis for RPG optimization?

I've got a light background in statistical analysis for project management, but I've never applied statistics to analyze RPGs or games for that matter at all. I'm looking to compare options within ...
2
votes
1answer
315 views

Help Needed With Probability Math for 2d10 [closed]

In my Old School D&D campaign, I instituted a house rule to help the PCs raise their ability scores. Each ability score has a "fractional ability score". This is a percentile rating that starts at ...
7
votes
2answers
623 views

How much is a Second roll worth in Modifier Bonus

That is to say, the value of a second roll, how much of a bonus value is it worth. For example: when you make a saving throw, attack or check roll, when does +bonus to the roll and rolling twice ...
5
votes
3answers
712 views

How do I calculate the chance of hits?

(I do not know if I should post this in math.stackexchange.com, so I try to phrase it in a way that it makes sense for non-roleplayers. Just in case it gets moved) In the latest two editions of ...
4
votes
3answers
2k views

Calculating dice pool probability with limited rerolls

I need a probability calculation script that works with various dice and dice pool sizes, that accounts for a mechanic that allows you to reroll up to X dice that are failures, but ONLY once per die. ...
5
votes
1answer
3k views

How to address Damage/Toughness bias in M&M Tradeoffs

The Basic Problem Right, Mutants and Masterminds is a True20 system where everything is resolved via rolling a d20. Attacks are made by rolling a d20 and adding the attack bonus, trying to match or ...
29
votes
8answers
14k views

When rolling percentages, do 1d100 and two d10s (percentiles) share the same probabilities?

I know d100s are shunned because they take too much time to roll, and 1d10+1percentile is really fun, but do they share the same probabilities? Is it better to use a (digital) d100? Also, do d100s ...
6
votes
5answers
998 views

How I figure what dice I need to attain a certain curve? [closed]

I want to make character stats that fit within certain bell curves depending on choices during character creation (for example race, gender, class, sprokets amount, whatever). And I am wondering how ...
20
votes
4answers
1k views

Roll For Shoes - Does the advancement system work for longer campaigns?

I'm about to start in on a new campaign with the Roll For Shoes system, but I'm concerned that the characters will swiftly outstrip basic and intermediate challenges as they grow in dice. In the ...
9
votes
2answers
1k views

How can I model Burning Wheel probabilities in AnyDice?

I have a basic intuition about dice in Burning Wheel, but it's handy to be able to look at actual probability distributions to hone your intuition. Especially since important rolls can involve ...
3
votes
6answers
314 views

A system that models improved threat range of critical misses?

Have you ever fumbled with a flail? It sucks, especially when you are first learning it. It can happen very often; Sometimes in such a terrible way it far surpasses the risk of swinging a staff, hands ...
6
votes
1answer
357 views

Are there statistics of the more played games?

Looking the questions of this site, it seems that D&D, in all its versions and variants, is by far the most played game. But that's not quite true in the people I know, so I think the proportions ...
2
votes
5answers
662 views

What is the probability for a thousand with 3 D10

I'm trying to figure out what is the probability with 3 D10's if I were to roll them one after another."001" is one and "000" is a thousand. Would every number have the same probability or doubles and ...
38
votes
7answers
4k views

Is it possible to produce a bowl-shaped probability curve with dice rolls?

In D&D's basic D20 system, you roll one d20 and add in some modifiers, then compare the result to a target number. Each modifier effectively adds or removes a 5% chance of success with the roll. ...
86
votes
3answers
14k views

How does rolling two dice and taking the highest affect the average outcome?

D&D 5E has an "advantage" concept where instead of rolling 1d20, you roll 2d20 and take the highest. Likewise, disadvantage means rolling 2d20 and taking the lowest. How does this affect the ...
6
votes
4answers
442 views

Can the astrology helping die decrease the chance of success?

Astrology can help most tests, but has a chance of actually taking away a success from the roll, thought it is unlikely. Ignoring the fiction and focusing only on the rules, is there any situation ...
12
votes
3answers
5k views

What's the probability curve of the D10 Storytelling System?

Recently a friend commented that he thought the dice pool in the d10 Storytelling System actually gave mediocre results, and that by increasing the number of dice thrown you were actually decreasing ...
11
votes
4answers
863 views

Chances of rolling up characters for classes in first edition Dungeons and Dragons

I recently read a blog post about the probabilities of rolling up a character that would meet the requirements for all of the different classes in first edition Dungeons and Dragons. I'd love to read ...