Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games.

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8
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1answer
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Link between deities' domains and alignment

Major characteristics of deity in D&D 3.5e are domains and alignment. It is common sense that deity with law domain should have lawful alignment, deity with evil domain should have evil alignment ...
10
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1answer
2k views

How likely is success in Dungeon World?

Most any roll in Dungeon World that isn't a damage roll is 2d6 plus the relevant stat modifier. The results (barring explicit exceptions in the move) fall into the following three categories: ...
3
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1answer
105 views

Are my AnyDice calculations for the Old World Of Darkness correct?

Here is the average amount of successes you can get from a given dicepool (left column) and given difficulty (upper row). Are the forumulas correct? Here is my program on AnyDice.com. Are there any ...
28
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7answers
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Does the chance of rolling a 1 in a pool of d10s increase as the number of dice increases?

Just a question about probability. If I roll one d10 there is a 10% chance of rolling a 1. Assuming that receiving any 1s among the results of a pool of dice is a failure, what are the chances of ...
30
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5answers
4k views

How many rolls does it take to get to six coins?

I'm designing a microRPG and need some help calculating probabilities so I can make an informed decision about how many coins to start with (controlling session duration and early-game frustration). ...
12
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4answers
377 views

How does replacing Advantage with a flat +2 affect Champion critical hit damage output?

My DM does not like Advantage/Disadvantage. While I disagree with his reasons on this, he has decided to replace it with a +2/-2 rule and I respect him (mostly) enough to follow his rules. I recently ...
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4answers
2k views

What is your chance to win in a contest where you have advantage and your opponent has disadvantage?

I'm trying to think of the answer to a certain problem, but I'm finding it hard to calculate. How much of a statistical edge do you have in a scenario where all of the following are true? You ...
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2answers
3k views

What are the statistical implications of doubling damage on crit instead of doubling the dice rolled?

I've been playing with a group that frequently allows players to double the value of dice rolled for crits (and other things) rather than rolling double the dice. Example, someone crits with 2d6 and ...
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2answers
187 views

What is the Expected Damage Gain from this Part of my Homebrewed Gunslinger Feat?

Preamble: One of the players in a campaign I will be DM’ing for will be playing a fighter archetype called the Gunslinger (made by Matthew Mercer for the RPG show Critical Role). Since the player ...
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1answer
52 views

Improving “fumbles” when using pools dice in TROS, part 2

(Thank you all so much for your help on my last post! I appreciate the explanations, graphs and suggestions given. As I continue to experiment with my homebrew variant, I do a lot of probability ...
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2answers
3k views

What is the probability of surviving my death saves?

If my character drops to 0HP but is not killed instantly by massive damage, what is the probability that I will stabilize via death saves unassisted/unhindered? As a refresher, here are some of the ...
14
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6answers
666 views

Are class features, Abilities, and feats that allow −5 to attack to get +10 to damage mathematically sound?

Some class features, abilities of monsters, and feats allow you to take a −5 to your attack roll in order to gain a +10 to your damage roll. At first glance this looks really good, but when will it ...
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4answers
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Is there a subtle difference between increasing DC and adding detrimental modifiers?

Modifying difficulty works in various ways within and between various roleplaying systems. But generally speaking, it seems added difficulty either modifies the target number (altering the check) or ...
9
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2answers
147 views

How can I get the highest or lowest values of an irregular dice pool in AnyDice?

I want to calculate irregular dice pools, such as (2d10, 1d8) in AnyDice, but I'm having difficulties. What I mean to do is out of a roll of 2d10 and a 1d8, take the highest (or lowest) two values ...
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3answers
273 views

How to compare hit % and damage between 1 attack vs 4 attacks with disadvantage?

Quite a few scenarios here, wish my AnyDice fu were up to par—if it's too much, no need to cover all of them, just the most representative, so I can figure out the rest. For the given character ...
3
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4answers
1k views

How do I calculate the chance to hit a given AC?

My current level 2 variant Ranger has the Sharpshooter Feat. His hit modifier is normally +7, but with Sharpshooter it's +2 (due to the −5). I am wondering what the % based chance to hit is ...
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2answers
136 views

What circumstances make Heighten Turning worthwhile?

The feat Heighten Turning has the following as part of its benefit: When you turn or rebuke undead, you may choose a number no higher than your cleric level. Add that number to your turning check, ...
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4answers
3k views

Is giving one side advantage always equivalent to giving disadvantage to the opponent?

Sometimes, players get advantage; sometimes, monsters get disadvantage. Sometimes it's not clear whether to give someone advantage or his opponent disadvantage, especially in improvised contests (PHB ...
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3answers
192 views

Improving “fumbles” when using pools of d10s in TROS

The original rules in TROS use varying pools of d10s to attempt rolling one or more successes against a varying Target Number (e.g., commonly a TN=7). Roll the pool of dice, count up the successes ...
3
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1answer
135 views

Bulldogs! Gear damage vs. accuracy

I'm looking at ways to model weapons for my setting, and I like quite a few things what the Bulldogs! system does. Basically, it's a system that has Fate's Damage Floor (+Damage) combined with a ...
1
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1answer
127 views

Help calculating opposing dice pool in AnyDice

I need to calculate the probability of A winning against B. Both A and B throw 1-15 d6s, the one with more successful dice (SD) wins. There are actually 5 possibles outcomes: ...
0
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1answer
315 views

Concerns about a dice-pool system [closed]

I'm writing "yet another rpg system" and I'm choosing a way to determine success. I'd like a dice pool mechanic, and I've come up with this. PCs have characteristics and abilities. Char. Mods will ...
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2answers
214 views

Multiclassing in 3.5e (epic level)

I've started making a character for my first epic level campaign, and I need to know how to add up your BAB in higher levels. I understand that (for example) a +6/+1 BAB and a +2 BAB make a total of +...
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2answers
119 views

What's the probability formula for succeeding at a Complex Skill Check? [closed]

The SRD page for Complex Skill Checks gives percentage numbers for a number of different scenarios. For example, if the required roll on a 1d20 is 2, the chance of success on a simple check is 95% (...
6
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1answer
248 views

Calculating 6D6 similar to poker dice [closed]

I keep coming back to the idea of building a game system around a 6D6 roll, taking matching sets of numbers and 'straights' as measures of effect. This guarantees that something always turns up (as ...
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8answers
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Can I substitute a d3 with a d6?

I don't have a lot of dice yet, just a basic set of polyhedral dice: 1d4 1d6 1d8 2d10 1d12 1d20 Sometimes an ability or save calls for a die that I don't have. Strike, Unarmed [...] ...
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2answers
1k views

Are Half-Elves immune to the paralyzing property of a Ghoul's Claw action?

The Ghoul's Claw attack in the Monster Manual (p.148) has the rider of forcing a save or paralyzing a creature if the target: ... is a creature other than an elf or undead ... My question is ...
0
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5answers
1k views

Does a roleplaying game that uses continuous probability exist? [closed]

I have an idea for a roleplaying game that uses continuous probability distributions (like the normal distribution) to decide random outcomes (instead of discrete distributions that comes from using ...
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0answers
208 views

Are there any RPGs with an insane amount of stats? [closed]

Are there any RPGs with a ridiculous amount of stats? I'm not looking for an enjoyable play experience, just a game with many stats to see how crazy and complicated it is. (The reason being I want ...
11
votes
3answers
514 views

What is the average roll of a die with an expanded explosion threshold as compared to one with an expanded success threshold?

This is going to be a bit of a weird question, but I'm figuring dice pool probabilities for a homebrew system and I want to know how certain abilities should be priced regarding their use. The basic ...
1
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1answer
171 views

How Do You Determine Static Statistics of Creatures?

I am writing stat blocks for creatures in a D&D module that I am working on with a friend. I am the designer, not the DM and I need to determine static stats for some creatures. Exempli gratia, a ...
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8answers
3k views

How do I approach the probability of a d100, using 2 d100's?

We're running an almost 100% homebrew system, which uses skills in order to craft objects during play. Allow me to first formulate an example to explain my question better: Jack is quite the mason ...
7
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1answer
815 views

Dice pool success probability with one exploding die

I'm looking for the math behind the following: Players have a pool of 3–11 d6s, and have to get from 1–4 successes, "success" being a roll of 5+. One of these dice is special (represented ...
5
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2answers
256 views

Can you roll a dice pool or multiple dice rolls with only one die?

Say I'm playing Vampire: The Requiem and I need to roll 5 d10's. Can I roll a d10 5 times instead of having 5 d10's? Can I split it up if I must, so if I only had 4 d10's could I roll the 4, then roll ...
3
votes
3answers
430 views

What's the probability of getting three matching faces in any one roll of four Fudge dice?

I'm having a little difficulty recalling the procedure for calculating probability of dice results. My question is, using 4 Fudge d6 dice, what is the probability of getting three of any result in one ...
2
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5answers
2k views

How to calculate the expected damage increase from Empowered Spell?

In D&D 5th Edition the Sorcerer Metamagic ability Empowered Spell states the following: "When you roll damage for a spell, you can spend 1 sorcery point to reroll a number of the damage dice up ...
4
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3answers
280 views

What is the average outcome of this opposed roll resolution mechanic?

Trying to work out the average number of successes for an opposed roll using the following system but can't quite seem to get it to work in Anydice Roll (3d6-5)+Stat+Skill+Modifier 3 6s = crit, ...
2
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1answer
285 views

Can you choose when to use your lower Base Attack Bonus?

I have a fighter level 10. She uses two-weapon fighting. With her BAB at 10/5, she has a total of 3 attacks during a full round attack correct? Also does her off hand attack receive the BAB of 10? ...
23
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4answers
12k views

How much damage does Great Weapon Fighting add on average?

The Great Weapon Fighting Fighting style states the following: When you roll a 1 or 2 on a damage die for an attack you make with a melee weapon that you are wielding with two hands, you can ...
7
votes
0answers
810 views

Probabilities using 3d10 as 1d1000 [duplicate]

I'm trying to use anydice to figure out the probabilities of the various values of 1d1000 rolled on 3d10. I want to know stuff like "what's the chance of rolling 900 or higher? How about 950 or ...
2
votes
1answer
203 views

How do you calculate the odds of success for an ability contest

I'm having a hard time understanding how to figure out the odds of success from an ability contest. I originally thought that each +1 would be 5% but anydice suggests 4% but only after a +1 ...
0
votes
2answers
911 views

How do you calculate an average damage when damage is conditional on circumstances?

I'm trying to compare two rogue builds to each other. The first rogue is easy. It's a wood elf with a long bow in a wilderness campaign, doing 1d8+mod damage and always being hidden with SA damage. ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

How do I calculate dice probability in the A Song of Ice and Fire system?

Say I need a net hit of 20 or higher. I get to roll 5d6 base, but I get a bonus dice roll of +3. I only get to keep the 5 highest so I would be rolling "8d6 drop lowest 3 rolls" I want to know what ...
8
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3answers
856 views

Considering Complex Dice Roll Probabilities

Hoping someone more math and excel/troll/anydice competent than I can help me out. I've long been considering implementing some Dungeon World style die roll mechanics into D&D. With Next about ...
8
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3answers
2k views

How can I get AnyDice to determine these odds?

After looking at AnyDice's Documentation and Function Library, I remain baffled. I know that AnyDice can do this, but I don't know how to tell it to. Scott Gray's Dice Pool Generator is easier to use ...
7
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1answer
194 views

Are there any guides for using Statistical Analysis for RPG optimization?

I've got a light background in statistical analysis for project management, but I've never applied statistics to analyze RPGs or games for that matter at all. I'm looking to compare options within ...
2
votes
1answer
373 views

Help Needed With Probability Math for 2d10 [closed]

In my Old School D&D campaign, I instituted a house rule to help the PCs raise their ability scores. Each ability score has a "fractional ability score". This is a percentile rating that starts at ...
7
votes
2answers
676 views

How much is a Second roll worth in Modifier Bonus

That is to say, the value of a second roll, how much of a bonus value is it worth. For example: when you make a saving throw, attack or check roll, when does +bonus to the roll and rolling twice ...
5
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3answers
844 views

How do I calculate the chance of hits?

(I do not know if I should post this in math.stackexchange.com, so I try to phrase it in a way that it makes sense for non-roleplayers. Just in case it gets moved) In the latest two editions of ...
5
votes
3answers
2k views

Calculating dice pool probability with limited rerolls

I need a probability calculation script that works with various dice and dice pool sizes, that accounts for a mechanic that allows you to reroll up to X dice that are failures, but ONLY once per die. ...