Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games.

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17
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4answers
469 views

Roll For Shoes - Does the advancement system work for longer campaigns?

I'm about to start in on a new campaign with the Roll For Shoes system, but I'm concerned that the characters will swiftly outstrip basic and intermediate challenges as they grow in dice. In the ...
6
votes
2answers
877 views

Polyhedral dice statistics program, spreadsheet, or document [closed]

Does anyone know of a program that does statistical analysis on dice rolls, or a document of tables for the same? I am looking mainly for statistics other than d6 (which are very common in most ...
5
votes
3answers
313 views

How do I calculate the chance of hits?

(I do not know if I should post this in math.stackexchange.com, so I try to phrase it in a way that it makes sense for non-roleplayers. Just in case it gets moved) In the latest two editions of ...
1
vote
5answers
396 views

What is the probability for a thousand with 3 D10

I'm trying to figure out what is the probability with 3 D10's if I were to roll them one after another."001" is one and "000" is a thousand. Would every number have the same probability or doubles and ...
7
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0answers
789 views

Probabilities using 3d10 as 1d1000 [duplicate]

I'm trying to use anydice to figure out the probabilities of the various values of 1d1000 rolled on 3d10. I want to know stuff like "what's the chance of rolling 900 or higher? How about 950 or ...
16
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6answers
3k views

What is the statistically superior character creation method, twelve 3d6 or six 4d6?

The D&D 3.5 Player's Handbook gives (among others) two preferred methods to roll ability scores for a new character: a) roll 3d6 twelve times and keep the preferred six results, or b) roll 4d6 and ...
7
votes
8answers
2k views

How do I approach the probability of a d100, using 2 d100's?

We're running an almost 100% homebrew system, which uses skills in order to craft objects during play. Allow me to first formulate an example to explain my question better: Jack is quite the mason ...
36
votes
7answers
3k views

Is it possible to produce a bowl-shaped probability curve with dice rolls?

In D&D's basic D20 system, you roll one d20 and add in some modifiers, then compare the result to a target number. Each modifier effectively adds or removes a 5% chance of success with the roll. ...
5
votes
1answer
161 views

Dice pool success probability with one exploding die

I'm looking for the math behind the following: Players have a pool of 3–11 d6s, and have to get from 1–4 successes, "success" being a roll of 5+. One of these dice is special (represented ...
3
votes
3answers
329 views

What's the probability of getting three matching faces in any one roll of four Fudge dice?

I'm having a little difficulty recalling the procedure for calculating probability of dice results. My question is, using 4 Fudge d6 dice, what is the probability of getting three of any result in one ...
2
votes
1answer
86 views

Can you roll dice pool or multiple dice rolls with only one dice?

Say I'm playing Vampire: The Requiem and I need to roll 5 d10's. Can I roll a d10 5 times instead of having 5 d10's? Can I split it up if I must, so if I only had 4 d10's could I roll the 4, then roll ...
2
votes
5answers
233 views

How to calculate the expected damage increase from Empowered Spell?

In D&D 5th Edition the Sorcerer Metamagic ability Empowered Spell states the following: "When you roll damage for a spell, you can spend 1 sorcery point to reroll a number of the damage dice up ...
12
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3answers
1k views

How much damage does Great Weapon Fighting add on average?

The Great Weapon Fighting Fighting style states the following: When you roll a 1 or 2 on a damage die for an attack you make with a melee weapon that you are wielding with two hands, you can ...
4
votes
3answers
145 views

What is the average outcome of this opposed roll resolution mechanic?

Trying to work out the average number of successes for an opposed roll using the following system but can't quite seem to get it to work in Anydice Roll (3d6-5)+Stat+Skill+Modifier 3 6s = crit, ...
25
votes
7answers
6k views

Is it the same using 1d100 and using 2d10 (one percentile)?

I know d100s are shunned because they take too much time to roll, and 1d10+1percentile is really fun, but do they share the same probabilities? Is it better to use a (digital) d100? Also, do d100s ...
1
vote
1answer
149 views

Can you choose when to use your lower Base Attack Bonus?

I have a fighter level 10. She uses two-weapon fighting. With her BAB at 10/5, she has a total of 3 attacks during a full round attack correct? Also does her off hand attack receive the BAB of 10? ...
5
votes
1answer
634 views

How to address Damage/Toughness bias in M&M Tradeoffs

The Basic Problem Right, Mutants and Masterminds is a True20 system where everything is resolved via rolling a d20. Attacks are made by rolling a d20 and adding the attack bonus, trying to match or ...
53
votes
11answers
8k views

3d6 vs a d20: What is the effect of a different probability curve?

What is the effect on game play of replacing d20 rolls with 3d6 rolls in a D&D 4e campaign? I started thinking about this after reading this question where the example was given of playing a d20 ...
65
votes
3answers
7k views

How does rolling two dice and taking the highest affect the average outcome?

D&D 5E has an "advantage" concept where instead of rolling 1d20, you roll 2d20 and take the highest. Likewise, disadvantage means rolling 2d20 and taking the lowest. How does this affect the ...
8
votes
3answers
535 views

What is the expected average damage for an area of effect power?

I have spent quite a bit of time coming up with an average damage document for my party and for several other characters. However, the one thing I have not been able to represent well is the average ...
2
votes
1answer
117 views

How do you calculate the odds of success for an ability contest

I'm having a hard time understanding how to figure out the odds of success from an ability contest. I originally thought that each +1 would be 5% but anydice suggests 4% but only after a +1 ...
0
votes
2answers
298 views

How do you calculate an average damage when damage is conditional on circumstances?

I'm trying to compare two rogue builds to each other. The first rogue is easy. It's a wood elf with a long bow in a wilderness campaign, doing 1d8+mod damage and always being hidden with SA damage. ...
5
votes
2answers
821 views

How do I calculate dice probability in the A Song of Ice and Fire system?

Say I need a net hit of 20 or higher. I get to roll 5d6 base, but I get a bonus dice roll of +3. I only get to keep the 5 highest so I would be rolling "8d6 drop lowest 3 rolls" I want to know what ...
7
votes
3answers
473 views

Considering Complex Dice Roll Probabilities

Hoping someone more math and excel/troll/anydice competent than I can help me out. I've long been considering implementing some Dungeon World style die roll mechanics into D&D. With Next about ...
9
votes
2answers
816 views

How can I model Burning Wheel probabilities in AnyDice?

I have a basic intuition about dice in Burning Wheel, but it's handy to be able to look at actual probability distributions to hone your intuition. Especially since important rolls can involve ...
7
votes
3answers
1k views

How can I get AnyDice to determine these odds?

After looking at AnyDice's Documentation and Function Library, I remain baffled. I know that AnyDice can do this, but I don't know how to tell it to. Scott Gray's Dice Pool Generator is easier to use ...
6
votes
2answers
477 views

How much is a Second roll worth in Modifier Bonus

That is to say, the value of a second roll, how much of a bonus value is it worth. For example: when you make a saving throw, attack or check roll, when does +bonus to the roll and rolling twice ...
4
votes
3answers
708 views

Calculating dice pool probability with limited rerolls

I need a probability calculation script that works with various dice and dice pool sizes, that accounts for a mechanic that allows you to reroll up to X dice that are failures, but ONLY once per die. ...
7
votes
1answer
129 views

Are there any guides for using Statistical Analysis for RPG optimization?

I've got a light background in statistical analysis for project management, but I've never applied statistics to analyze RPGs or games for that matter at all. I'm looking to compare options within ...
2
votes
1answer
207 views

Help Needed With Probability Math for 2d10 [closed]

In my Old School D&D campaign, I instituted a house rule to help the PCs raise their ability scores. Each ability score has a "fractional ability score". This is a percentile rating that starts at ...
6
votes
5answers
766 views

How I figure what dice I need to attain a certain curve? [closed]

I want to make character stats that fit within certain bell curves depending on choices during character creation (for example race, gender, class, sprokets amount, whatever). And I am wondering how ...
11
votes
4answers
593 views

Chances of rolling up characters for classes in first edition Dungeons and Dragons

I recently read a blog post about the probabilities of rolling up a character that would meet the requirements for all of the different classes in first edition Dungeons and Dragons. I'd love to read ...
3
votes
6answers
255 views

A system that models improved threat range of critical misses?

Have you ever fumbled with a flail? It sucks, especially when you are first learning it. It can happen very often; Sometimes in such a terrible way it far surpasses the risk of swinging a staff, hands ...
6
votes
1answer
260 views

Are there statistics of the more played games?

Looking the questions of this site, it seems that D&D, in all its versions and variants, is by far the most played game. But that's not quite true in the people I know, so I think the proportions ...
7
votes
5answers
386 views

Measuring complexity in 4e characters?

This google doc contains my current work. I am working on a set of quantifiers that can reliably compare complexity between two different characters. At present, I've operationalized 5 factors: ...
6
votes
4answers
369 views

Can the astrology helping die decrease the chance of success?

Astrology can help most tests, but has a chance of actually taking away a success from the roll, thought it is unlikely. Ignoring the fiction and focusing only on the rules, is there any situation ...
1
vote
0answers
160 views

Are there any mathematical tools to study ''RPG'' video games? [closed]

Lately, I have been interested in the various patterns I see in a genre of video games called ''role-playing'' games. I am analyzing very simple cases at the moment and I was wondering if there are ...
11
votes
3answers
3k views

What's the probability curve of the D10 Storytelling System?

Recently a friend commented that he thought the dice pool in the d10 Storytelling System actually gave mediocre results, and that by increasing the number of dice thrown you were actually decreasing ...
4
votes
2answers
807 views

Explain why Ubiquity doesn't have an asymmetrical bell curve like most dice pool systems?

A post on Pen and Paper Games forum states that the Ubiquity system does not have an asymmetrical bell curve as other dice pool systems typically do (like the D6 system). Where can I find this ...
17
votes
6answers
2k views

Earthdawn dice roll probabilities

After ad-hoc running Misguided Ambitions with my regular DnD 4E group - because one guy was MIA - I had a discussion with one of the players about Earthdawn's dice mechanics. The player argued that ...
4
votes
2answers
394 views

What is the formula for average damage for an Avenger against an Oath target?

I am creating a spreadsheet to compute average damage for my party. One of the issues that I am having is calculating average damage for the target of our Hybrid Avenger-Assassin's Avenger attacks ...
8
votes
1answer
1k views

Average attack bonus of a 30th level character in DnD 4e

What is the average attack of 30th level D&D character? (Of course this number must be calculated without uber-strong homebrew items). My real question is this: What is the average chance of ...