Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games.

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47
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11answers
7k views

3d6 vs a d20: What is the effect of a different probability curve?

What is the effect on game play of replacing d20 rolls with 3d6 rolls in a D&D 4e campaign? I started thinking about this after reading this question where the example was given of playing a d20 ...
48
votes
3answers
5k views

How does rolling two dice and taking the highest affect the average outcome?

I've read that the D&D 5E playtest has an "advantage" concept where instead of rolling 1d20, you roll 2d20 and take the highest. Likewise, disadvantage means rolling 2d20 and taking the lowest. ...
32
votes
7answers
2k views

Is it possible to produce a bowl-shaped probability curve with dice rolls?

In D&D's basic D20 system, you roll one d20 and add in some modifiers, then compare the result to a target number. Each modifier effectively adds or removes a 5% chance of success with the roll. ...
16
votes
6answers
2k views

Earthdawn dice roll probabilities

After ad-hoc running Misguided Ambitions with my regular DnD 4E group - because one guy was MIA - I had a discussion with one of the players about Earthdawn's dice mechanics. The player argued that ...
8
votes
3answers
494 views

What is the expected average damage for an area of effect power?

I have spent quite a bit of time coming up with an average damage document for my party and for several other characters. However, the one thing I have not been able to represent well is the average ...
9
votes
2answers
577 views

How can I model Burning Wheel probabilities in AnyDice?

I have a basic intuition about dice in Burning Wheel, but it's handy to be able to look at actual probability distributions to hone your intuition. Especially since important rolls can involve ...
6
votes
2answers
426 views

How much is a Second roll worth in Modifier Bonus

That is to say, the value of a second roll, how much of a bonus value is it worth. For example: when you make a saving throw, attack or check roll, when does +bonus to the roll and rolling twice ...
4
votes
3answers
411 views

Calculating dice pool probability with limited rerolls

I need a probability calculation script that works with various dice and dice pool sizes, that accounts for a mechanic that allows you to reroll up to X dice that are failures, but ONLY once per die. ...
4
votes
2answers
702 views

Explain why Ubiquity doesn't have an asymmetrical bell curve like most dice pool systems?

A post on Pen and Paper Games forum states that the Ubiquity system does not have an asymmetrical bell curve as other dice pool systems typically do (like the D6 system). Where can I find this ...
2
votes
1answer
180 views

Help Needed With Probability Math for 2d10 [closed]

In my Old School D&D campaign, I instituted a house rule to help the PCs raise their ability scores. Each ability score has a "fractional ability score". This is a percentile rating that starts at ...
0
votes
2answers
247 views

How do you calculate an average damage when damage is conditional on circumstances?

I'm trying to compare two rogue builds to each other. The first rogue is easy. It's a wood elf with a long bow in a wilderness campaign, doing 1d8+mod damage and always being hidden with SA damage. ...