Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games.

learn more… | top users | synonyms (1)

101
votes
5answers
17k views

How does rolling two dice and taking the highest affect the average outcome?

D&D 5E has an "advantage" concept where instead of rolling 1d20, you roll 2d20 and take the highest. Likewise, disadvantage means rolling 2d20 and taking the lowest. How does this affect the ...
72
votes
13answers
14k views

3d6 vs a d20: What is the effect of a different probability curve?

What is the effect on game play of replacing d20 rolls with 3d6 rolls in a D&D 4e campaign? I started thinking about this after reading this question where the example was given of playing a d20 ...
22
votes
4answers
11k views

How much damage does Great Weapon Fighting add on average?

The Great Weapon Fighting Fighting style states the following: When you roll a 1 or 2 on a damage die for an attack you make with a melee weapon that you are wielding with two hands, you can ...
40
votes
7answers
5k views

Is it possible to produce a bowl-shaped probability curve with dice rolls?

In D&D's basic D20 system, you roll one d20 and add in some modifiers, then compare the result to a target number. Each modifier effectively adds or removes a 5% chance of success with the roll. ...
25
votes
6answers
3k views

Are Earthdawn's dice mechanics as unfair and wonky as my player claims?

After an Earthdawn one-off running Misguided Ambitions with my regular D&D 4E group — because one guy was MIA — I had a discussion with one of the players about Earthdawn's dice mechanics. The ...
11
votes
6answers
571 views

Are class features, Abilities, and feats that allow −5 to attack to get +10 to damage mathematically sound?

Some class features, abilities of monsters, and feats allow you to take a −5 to your attack roll in order to gain a +10 to your damage roll. At first glance this looks really good, but when will it ...
9
votes
3answers
627 views

What is the expected average damage for an area of effect power?

I have spent quite a bit of time coming up with an average damage document for my party and for several other characters. However, the one thing I have not been able to represent well is the average ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

Explain why Ubiquity doesn't have an asymmetrical bell curve like most dice pool systems?

A post on Pen and Paper Games forum states that the Ubiquity system does not have an asymmetrical bell curve as other dice pool systems typically do (like the D6 system). Where can I find this ...
2
votes
5answers
764 views

What is the probability for a thousand with 3 D10

I'm trying to figure out what is the probability with 3 D10's if I were to roll them one after another."001" is one and "000" is a thousand. Would every number have the same probability or doubles and ...
32
votes
2answers
2k views

What is the probability of surviving my death saves?

If my character drops to 0HP but is not killed instantly by massive damage, what is the probability that I will stabilize via death saves unassisted/unhindered? As a refresher, here are some of the ...
33
votes
2answers
3k views

What are the statistical implications of doubling damage on crit instead of doubling the dice rolled?

I've been playing with a group that frequently allows players to double the value of dice rolled for crits (and other things) rather than rolling double the dice. Example, someone crits with 2d6 and ...
6
votes
3answers
186 views

Improving “fumbles” when using pools of d10s in TROS

The original rules in TROS use varying pools of d10s to attempt rolling one or more successes against a varying Target Number (e.g., commonly a TN=7). Roll the pool of dice, count up the successes ...
31
votes
7answers
17k views

When rolling percentages, do 1d100 and two d10s (percentiles) share the same probabilities?

I know d100s are shunned because they take too much time to roll, and 1d10+1percentile is really fun, but do they share the same probabilities? Is it better to use a (digital) d100? Also, do d100s ...
20
votes
4answers
1k views

Roll For Shoes - Does the advancement system work for longer campaigns?

I'm about to start in on a new campaign with the Roll For Shoes system, but I'm concerned that the characters will swiftly outstrip basic and intermediate challenges as they grow in dice. In the ...
8
votes
3answers
2k views

How can I get AnyDice to determine these odds?

After looking at AnyDice's Documentation and Function Library, I remain baffled. I know that AnyDice can do this, but I don't know how to tell it to. Scott Gray's Dice Pool Generator is easier to use ...
12
votes
4answers
367 views

How does replacing Advantage with a flat +2 affect Champion critical hit damage output?

My DM does not like Advantage/Disadvantage. While I disagree with his reasons on this, he has decided to replace it with a +2/-2 rule and I respect him (mostly) enough to follow his rules. I recently ...
9
votes
2answers
2k views

How can I model Burning Wheel probabilities in AnyDice?

I have a basic intuition about dice in Burning Wheel, but it's handy to be able to look at actual probability distributions to hone your intuition. Especially since important rolls can involve ...
7
votes
2answers
664 views

How much is a Second roll worth in Modifier Bonus

That is to say, the value of a second roll, how much of a bonus value is it worth. For example: when you make a saving throw, attack or check roll, when does +bonus to the roll and rolling twice ...
6
votes
2answers
1k views

Are Half-Elves immune to the paralyzing property of a Ghoul's Claw action?

The Ghoul's Claw attack in the Monster Manual (p.148) has the rider of forcing a save or paralyzing a creature if the target: ... is a creature other than an elf or undead ... My question is ...
5
votes
3answers
2k views

Calculating dice pool probability with limited rerolls

I need a probability calculation script that works with various dice and dice pool sizes, that accounts for a mechanic that allows you to reroll up to X dice that are failures, but ONLY once per die. ...
2
votes
1answer
366 views

Help Needed With Probability Math for 2d10 [closed]

In my Old School D&D campaign, I instituted a house rule to help the PCs raise their ability scores. Each ability score has a "fractional ability score". This is a percentile rating that starts at ...