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As Dale M correctly points out, the probability of a fumble actually goes down for sufficiently large pools. This is because you can only fumble when you don't succeed, and with a large enough pool of dice, success becomes overwhelmingly likely. Here's a simple AnyDice program to calculate the fumble rate for various target numbers and pool sizes: ...


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I don't completely agree with Dale M's answer. Yes, the overall chance of fumbling might be less because the chance of failure decreases. I believe you should look at the chance of fumbling given that the character has failed. An expert has less chance of failing, but when he fails he has a bigger chance of failing spectacularly, which seems indeed ...


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Obvious to us amateur game designers that the more dice in your pool (the more skilled the character) the MORE likely you are to roll a fumble. A poor design choice IMHO, and one of the few broken rules in an otherwise great game system. Except ... you're wrong - the more dice you roll the less likely you are to get a fumble. It works like this: To get ...



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