The spell is balanced but on the weaker side. It might need a push to be competitive with the popular AOE damage spells.
The missile storm is at its core, an AOE spell that has unconventional scaling based on the number of targets hit. Because of this, I compared its damage output to various spells of similar effects on 3rd and 4th level.
I used this (from u/SuscriptorJusticiero on Reddit) handy chart for the damage estimation of the saving throw fails/successes (Uses saving throw fail estimation chance of 0.66 that results in effective damage of 0.83*Full damage for spells with "save for half damage" clause).
The author claims the DMG suggests the 0.66 save failure chance, but I was not able to verify that.
Here are the results for AoE spells:
- Fireball lvl. 3: Full damage 28, Save damage: 14, Avg damage: 21, Effective damage: 23.33
- Fireball lvl. 4: Full: 31.5, Save: 15.75, Avg: 23.63, Effective:
26.25
- Ice Storm lvl. 4: Full: 23, Save: 11,5, Avg: 17.25, Effective: 19.17 (has additional CC effects)
Let's compare to blight for single target damage as well:
- Blight lvl. 4: Full: 36, Save: 18, Avg: 27, Effective: 30
Here are damage outputs of Isaac's Missile Storm based on the number of targeted creatures:
( I use a simplified way to calculate damage since the damage is uneven based on the number of creatures hit. The formula: avg. missile damage * num missiles / num creatures)
- one creature: ((1+6)/2+1)*6 = 27 damage
- two creatures: ((1+6)/2+1)*8/2 = 18 damage
- three creatures: ((1+6)/2+1)*10/3 = 15 damage
- four creatures: ((1+6)/2+1)*12/4 = 13.5 damage
- five creatures: ((1+6)/2+1)*14/5 = 12.6 damage
As seen from the results, the spell underperforms when compared to both fireballs and ice storm assuming 2+ targets in the AOE. The results are somewhat comparable for average and less so for effective damage on two targets, but the Missile storm falls off hard when more than two targets are in the AOE.
The "singe target use" of the Missile Storm seems on par with the avg damage of blight.
Summary
Missile storm underperforms other comparable spells in damage when
hitting multiple opponents.
On the other hand, Missile storm offers better damage type and
consistency in damage dealt that is rare for AOE spells.
Spellcasters can fully negate missile storm with shield but only partially negate compared spells with absorb elements
Very useful spell against creatures with magic resistance since it does not provide saving throw
Suggested adjustments (personal opinion)
I think the current version of Missile storm is on the edge of usability. It would be a good spell against high tier enemies that are resistant to magic but in general, it seems to get overshadowed by even lvl. 3 fireball which I consider a bad sign.
I disagree with the author of the answer for the previous iteration on being able to select the targets for the storm. There is even a precedent with spells like Destructive Wave. I think being able to choose targets would be a flavorful addition to the spell that would push it in competition with other AOE damage staples without needing to buff its damage.
There are other competing dualities of spells of similar purpose, where the ability to choose targets pushes the "weaker" spell to compete with the "stronger" one (see Hypnotic Pattern vs. Slow). The fact that Missile storm is 4th lvl spell also makes it a complementary option to fireball rather than a direct competitor.
As for the clarity of the second paragraph, it is clear even if somewhat inelegant formulation, but the targeting for this spell is complex, and I can't think of a more streamlined version. A possible way would be
Each missile targets a creature. Creatures within the area are hit by a uniformly distributed number of missiles so that each creature is hit by at most one more missile than any other creature.
but that might require too much math on the part of the player to parse...
Note: I evaluate the Missile Storm for rolling a 1d6+1 separately for every missile. The damage variance for the spell would be just absurd otherwise.