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It seems a bit too much for spellcasters

You have done all the hard work on hashing out the statistics of the mechnical impact of the feature.

Advantage: For my taste, having advantage near 50% of the time to your spell attacks seems pretty powerful. Advantage on average adds about 4-5 points of to hit at typical hit rates of 65%, or more than 20% likely hood to hit. That's a lot.

DCs Modifiers: I think this one is also slightly strong, as getting an additional +1 to +3 on top of other bonuses can strain bounded accuracy. You get about +1 more than 35% of the time. Normally, you have to wait 4 levels to even get +1 from your proficieny bonus, and you have a ceiling from your profciency and spellcasting ability bonus that this also can break. In additon, you have an about equal chance of 13-14% for -1 or +2, but the positive mod is twice as big. So one way to look at this is to think of another 14% or so where you net a +1, in total again for nearly 50% of the time.

Another issue might be that if the campaign has no urgent time pressure, the wizard may be incentivized and lobby the group to avoid the days with penalties and go on major sorties the day they get +2.

Shadow of the Dragon Queen is for levels 1-11. The average chance to make a save for the first 10 levels (based on average statisitics from the Monster Manual) is about 46% for Con, about 40% for Dex and about 39% for Wisdom. An increase by 2 points to the DC means lowering these chances by 10%, or relatively speaking, reducing the range where you save by about 20% to 25%. That is a lot. (We'll ignore the very rare case where you even get +3).

I think your instinct to be concerned is right.

One way to fix this and keep the reinforcement/fluctuations could be to grant a modifier of -1/+1/+2/+3 to the spellcasting ability score only for calculating save DCs, instead of to the save DC directly, halfing the effect. For +1, that has the "downside" that it has no effect if the caster already has an even ability score, while the -1 will lower the DC by 1 about as often as the +2 increases it; this may help balance it, especially as wizards tend start with Intelligence 16 if they can and then to max Intelligence to 20, also ending up with an even score. I probably also would apply this for spell attack to hits, instead of advantage. (Maybe give advantage on the Eye of the Moons, to make it even more special).

It seems a bit too much for spellcasters

You have done all the hard work on hashing out the statistics of the mechanical impact of the feature.

Advantage: For my taste, having advantage near 50% of the time to your spell attacks seems pretty powerful. Advantage on average adds about 4-5 points of to hit at typical hit rates of 65%, or more than 20% likely hood to hit. That's a lot.

DCs Modifiers: I think this one is also slightly strong, as getting an additional +1 to +3 on top of other bonuses can strain bounded accuracy. You get about +1 more than 35% of the time. Normally, you have to wait 4 levels to even get +1 from your proficient bonus, and you have a ceiling from your proficiency and spellcasting ability bonus that this also can break. In addition, you have an about equal chance of 13-14% for -1 or +2, but the positive mod is twice as big. So one way to look at this is to think of another 14% or so where you net a +1, in total again for nearly 50% of the time.

Another issue might be that if the campaign has no urgent time pressure, the wizard may be incentivized and lobby the group to avoid the days with penalties and go on major sorties the day they get +2.

Shadow of the Dragon Queen is for levels 1-11. The average chance to make a save for the first 10 levels (based on average statistics from the Monster Manual) is about 46% for Con, about 40% for Dex and about 39% for Wisdom. An increase by 2 points to the DC means lowering these chances by 10%, or relatively speaking, reducing the range where you save by about 20% to 25%. That is a lot. (We'll ignore the very rare case where you even get +3).

I think your instinct to be concerned is right.

One way to fix this and keep the reinforcement/fluctuations could be to grant a modifier of -1/+1/+2/+3 to the spellcasting ability score only for calculating save DCs, instead of to the save DC directly, halfing the effect. For +1, that has the "downside" that it has no effect if the caster already has an even ability score, while the -1 will lower the DC by 1 about as often as the +2 increases it; this may help balance it, especially as wizards tend start with Intelligence 16 if they can and then to max Intelligence to 20, also ending up with an even score. I probably also would apply this for spell attack to hits, instead of advantage. (Maybe give advantage on the Eye of the Moons, to make it even more special).

It seems a bit too much for spellcasters

You have done all the hard work on hashing out the statistics of the mechnical impact of the feature.

Advantage: For my taste, having advantage near 50% of the time to your spell attacks seems pretty powerful. Advantage on average adds about 4-5 points of to hit at typical hit rates of 65%, or more than 20% likely hood to hit. That's a lot.

DCs Modifiers: I think this one is also slightly strong, as getting an additional +1 to +3 on top of other bonuses can strain bounded accuracy. You get about +1 more than 35% of the time. Normally, you have to wait 4 levels to even get +1 from your proficieny bonus, and you have a ceiling from your profciency and spellcasting ability bonus that this also can break. In additon, you have an about equal chance of 13-14% for -1 or +2, but the positive mod is twice as big. So one way to look at this is to think of another 14% or so where you net a +1, in total again for nearly 50% of the time.

Another issue might be that if the campaign has no urgent time pressure, the wizard may be incentivized and lobby the group to avoid the days with penalties and go on major sorties the day they get +2.

Shadow of the Dragon Queen is for levels 1-11. The average chance to make a save for the first 10 levels (based on average statisitics from the Monster Manual) is about 46% for Con, about 40% for Dex and about 39% for Wisdom. An increase by 2 points to the DC means lowering these chances by 10%, or relatively speaking, reducing the range where you save by about 20% to 25%. That is a lot. (We'll ignore the very rare case where you even get +3).

I think your instinct to be concerned is right.

I have no great way to fix this and keep the reinforcement/fluctuations, one way could be to grant a modifier of -1/+1/+2/+3 to the spellcasting ability score instead of the save DC, halfing the effect. For +1, that has the "downside" that it has no effect if the caster already has an even ability score, while the -1 will lower the DC by 1 about as often as the +2 increases it; this may help balance it, especially as wizards tend start with Intelligence 16 if they can and then to max Intelligence to 20, also ending up with an even score. I probably also would apply this for spell attack to hits, instead of advantage. (Maybe give advantage on the Eye of the Moons, to make it even more special).

It seems a bit too much for spellcasters

You have done all the hard work on hashing out the statistics of the mechnical impact of the feature.

Advantage: For my taste, having advantage near 50% of the time to your spell attacks seems pretty powerful. Advantage on average adds about 4-5 points of to hit at typical hit rates of 65%, or more than 20% likely hood to hit. That's a lot.

DCs Modifiers: I think this one is also slightly strong, as getting an additional +1 to +3 on top of other bonuses can strain bounded accuracy. You get about +1 more than 35% of the time. Normally, you have to wait 4 levels to even get +1 from your proficieny bonus, and you have a ceiling from your profciency and spellcasting ability bonus that this also can break. In additon, you have an about equal chance of 13-14% for -1 or +2, but the positive mod is twice as big. So one way to look at this is to think of another 14% or so where you net a +1, in total again for nearly 50% of the time.

Another issue might be that if the campaign has no urgent time pressure, the wizard may be incentivized and lobby the group to avoid the days with penalties and go on major sorties the day they get +2.

Shadow of the Dragon Queen is for levels 1-11. The average chance to make a save for the first 10 levels (based on average statisitics from the Monster Manual) is about 46% for Con, about 40% for Dex and about 39% for Wisdom. An increase by 2 points to the DC means lowering these chances by 10%, or relatively speaking, reducing the range where you save by about 20% to 25%. That is a lot. (We'll ignore the very rare case where you even get +3).

I think your instinct to be concerned is right.

One way to fix this and keep the reinforcement/fluctuations could be to grant a modifier of -1/+1/+2/+3 to the spellcasting ability score only for calculating save DCs, instead of to the save DC directly, halfing the effect. For +1, that has the "downside" that it has no effect if the caster already has an even ability score, while the -1 will lower the DC by 1 about as often as the +2 increases it; this may help balance it, especially as wizards tend start with Intelligence 16 if they can and then to max Intelligence to 20, also ending up with an even score. I probably also would apply this for spell attack to hits, instead of advantage. (Maybe give advantage on the Eye of the Moons, to make it even more special).

It seems a bit too much for spellcasters

You have done all the hard work on hashing out the statistics of the mechnical impact of the feature.

Advantage: For my taste, having advantage near 50% of the time to your spell attacks seems pretty powerful. Advantage on average adds about 4-5 points of to hit, or more than 20% likely hood to hit.

DCs Modifiers: Getting +2 to your spell save DCs is also very strong. Normally, you have to wait 4 levels to even get +1 to it from your proficieny bonus, and you have a ceiling on adding up to +5 to it from your spellcasting ability bonus that this also can overcome. This is similar to the effect of higher to hit vs expected AC.  Shadow of the Dragon Queen is for levels 1-11. The average chance to make a save against the often targeted ability scores for the first 10 levels (based on average statisitics from the Monster Manual) is about 46% for Con, about 40% for Dex and about 39% for Wisdom. An increase by 2 point to the DC means lowering these chances by 10%, or relatively speaking, reducing the range where you save by about 20% to 25%. That is a lot. With two moons in high Sanction, the Wizard gets +4, which lowers the chance to safe by 20% to a paltry about 20-25%, or relatively speaking, nearly by half. That happens nearly as often as the -1, which gives the targets a +5 better save, but the positive side has twice the effect, so even those two do not balance out, and you get +2 on top of that over 35% of the time.

All of this is a bit problematic with the bounded accuracy assumptions the game has. I think your instinct to be concerned is right.

I have no great way to fix this and keep the reinforcement/fluctuations, but you could reduce the bonus to +1/+2/+3. That has the "downside" that it has no effect if the caster already has an even ability score for +1, so it is not enough to be felt in those cases, while the -1 will be felt; but that may be desireable and would help balance it, especially as wizards tend to max Intelligence, and end up with an even score. I probably also would apply this for spell attack to hits, instead of advantage. (Maybe give advantage on the Eye of the Moons, to make it even more special).

It seems a bit too much for spellcasters

You have done all the hard work on hashing out the statistics of the mechnical impact of the feature.

Advantage: For my taste, having advantage near 50% of the time to your spell attacks seems pretty powerful. Advantage on average adds about 4-5 points of to hit at typical hit rates of 65%, or more than 20% likely hood to hit. That's a lot.

DCs Modifiers: I think this one is also slightly strong, as getting an additional +1 to +3 on top of other bonuses can strain bounded accuracy. You get about +1 more than 35% of the time. Normally, you have to wait 4 levels to even get +1 from your proficieny bonus, and you have a ceiling from your profciency and spellcasting ability bonus that this also can break. In additon, you have an about equal chance of 13-14% for -1 or +2, but the positive mod is twice as big. So one way to look at this is to think of another 14% or so where you net a +1, in total again for nearly 50% of the time.

Another issue might be that if the campaign has no urgent time pressure, the wizard may be incentivized and lobby the group to avoid the days with penalties and go on major sorties the day they get +2. 

Shadow of the Dragon Queen is for levels 1-11. The average chance to make a save for the first 10 levels (based on average statisitics from the Monster Manual) is about 46% for Con, about 40% for Dex and about 39% for Wisdom. An increase by 2 points to the DC means lowering these chances by 10%, or relatively speaking, reducing the range where you save by about 20% to 25%. That is a lot. (We'll ignore the very rare case where you even get +3).

I think your instinct to be concerned is right.

I have no great way to fix this and keep the reinforcement/fluctuations, one way could be to grant a modifier of -1/+1/+2/+3 to the spellcasting ability score instead of the save DC, halfing the effect. For +1, that has the "downside" that it has no effect if the caster already has an even ability score, while the -1 will lower the DC by 1 about as often as the +2 increases it; this may help balance it, especially as wizards tend start with Intelligence 16 if they can and then to max Intelligence to 20, also ending up with an even score. I probably also would apply this for spell attack to hits, instead of advantage. (Maybe give advantage on the Eye of the Moons, to make it even more special).