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This question already has an answer here:

In a campaign I am starting I want to make use of an encounter where the players could lose a device that will make it easier for them to pass a puzzle later on. The idea is the following:

In order to reach a set of caves the players must cross an alpine lake by boat. On their way, they find themselves in a storm. The storm will do a certain amount of damage each turn. The boat will also be attacked by some Merfolk. The idea is that when the players kill the Merfolk, the storm dissipates. If they fail to do so before the boat is destroyed, the Merfolk let them be, and the players must swim to shore. This means they will lose the heavy stone artifact.

I want the encounter to be such that the players have a reasonable chance of beating the Merfolk before the boat is destroyed, but there should also be a good chance of them not making it. In order to do so, I have to have an idea about the number of turns it will likely take, such that I have an idea as to how much HP the boat should have (or alternatively, how much damage die the storm should roll every round), for there to be a good possibility of both.

How would one get an idea about the number of rounds? Are there any tricks/methods that give you an idea of this?

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marked as duplicate by daze413, user17995, Community Sep 14 '17 at 4:57

This question has been asked before and already has an answer. If those answers do not fully address your question, please ask a new question.

  • \$\begingroup\$ What is your tolerance range? (Plus or minus how many rounds)? Since you can appreciate the variation introduced by die rolls, what range of rounds are you willing to accept? (+/- 1? +/-3? +/-5?) \$\endgroup\$ – KorvinStarmast Sep 13 '17 at 12:11
  • \$\begingroup\$ I don't really know what a realistic number of rounds to expect is. +-3 or so seems great, but I will be happy with any reasonable indication I get to begin with, just to have an idea of what is reasonable (don't want to end up with the encounter being pretty much guaranteed to go a certain direction) \$\endgroup\$ – Joren Vaes Sep 13 '17 at 12:14
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    \$\begingroup\$ might be related rpg.stackexchange.com/questions/93183 \$\endgroup\$ – enkryptor Sep 13 '17 at 13:54
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    \$\begingroup\$ @enkryptor Possible duplicate? \$\endgroup\$ – Ladifas Sep 13 '17 at 15:45
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For simple combat encounters between PCs and monsters, calculate each participant's probability of hitting their opponent x average hit points damage inflicted per round. This will give you a ballpark figure how many rounds, on average, combat continues until one participant is reduced to zero hit points.

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