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In the new Explorer's Guide to Wildemount, we are introduced to a new wizard Arcane Tradition called Chronurgy Magic, whose 14th-level feature Convergent Future says:

You can peer through possible futures and magically pull one of them into events around you, ensuring a particular outcome. When you or a creature you can see within 60 feet of you makes an attack roll, an ability check, or a saving throw, you can use your reaction to ignore the die roll and decide whether the number rolled is the minimum needed to succeed or one less than that number (your choice).

Say the DC for a Strength ability check is 25, and I have a +2 Strength modifier.
Does Convergent Future allow the die roll to be either 23 ("the minimum needed to succeed") or 22 ("one less than that number") even though the maximum possible on a d20 is 20?

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    \$\begingroup\$ Now I'm wondering whether "the minimum needed to succeed" takes into account modifiers at all since there are things like bless, temple of the gods, and various other possible modifiers to rolls, even proficiency bonus in some cases \$\endgroup\$ – Medix2 Mar 20 at 15:23
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    \$\begingroup\$ @Medix2: Per a tweet by Matt Mercer, the intent seems to be to include regular modifiers on the check but to allow other modifiers to affect it afterward: "Some creatures/characters have features that can (often as a reaction) adjust a final roll (Shield spell, enemies with Parry, etc). In those rare moments, I imagine, these abilities could still affect the roll after Convergent Future takes place." Seems like it could get confusing. (Obviously that's not an official ruling, and doesn't address this question itself.) \$\endgroup\$ – V2Blast Mar 20 at 22:34
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No

If it's not possible to succeed you don't roll the dice. For attacks, a Natural 20 is always a success, ability checks and saves (excepting Death Saves) do not auto succeed on a Natural 20.

If you want to jump to the Moon there is no chance you can actually succeed, therefore you don't even make a check. Since no check is rolled, you can't use Convergent Future to modify your roll.

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    \$\begingroup\$ +1 A good way to think about this is there are no successful futures to pull from, as the task is impossible. \$\endgroup\$ – Tal Mar 20 at 16:44
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    \$\begingroup\$ I am won over by your answer! It might help to cite the rule for using ability checks The DM calls for an ability check when a character or monster attempts an action (other than an attack) that has a chance of failure. Since, essentially you're saying the opposite is true, too (ie, when there is no chance of success) \$\endgroup\$ – Rykara Mar 20 at 17:05
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    \$\begingroup\$ @Rykara I’m pretty sure there’s another rule for that, but either way, I agree, quote support would be good here. But please don’t use code formatting for quotes, or anything that’s not actually code. Quotation marks work fine, bold or italics if you must, but code formatting can cause problems. \$\endgroup\$ – KRyan Mar 20 at 22:30
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    \$\begingroup\$ This isn't quite true in the questioner's case. There are several ways to add to an ability check, such as using Bardic Inspiration, so it is entirely feasible to succeed at a check that you need to roll above 20 for. \$\endgroup\$ – Tektotherriggen Mar 22 at 17:06
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    \$\begingroup\$ Sorry, let me be clearer: the questioner's situation is DC25, modifier +2. In normal circumstances the best they can do is 22, so yes, it is unattainable. But suppose they get Bardic Inspiration - they could add a d6 to the roll, potentially getting up to 28 and passing the test. The DM can't just declare that the DC25 task was impossible, without a roll, unless they are sure that the party can't rustle up any extra bonuses. \$\endgroup\$ – Tektotherriggen Mar 23 at 18:10
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No

decide … the number rolled

The number rolled can only be a number between 1 and 20. If you need more than 20 to succeed (or less than 1 to fail) then no such number exists on a 20 sided die.

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