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As a companion to this question, what is the expected chance of being hit by an average monster of your level?

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It varies, increasing at higher levels

The Gamemastery Guide has tables that GMs can use to quickly build a custom monster based on average stats for each level. The tables are also conveniently combined on the Advanced GM Screen. We can use these to estimate the average chance of being hit at each level, based on class.

Armor Class is equal to 10 + Proficiency(+level) + Armor + Dexterity. However, armor bonus and maximum Dexterity are correlated: for most non-magical armor (including explorer's clothing) the sum of armor and dex is 5. For heavy armor the sum is 6. For the calculations I assume an Armor + Dexterity of 5 except for Monk, which can't get +5 Dexterity until level 10 (this is accounted for below). Armor potency runes are applied one level later than their item level (per the Character Wealth table). As a note, heavy armor with the same proficiency reduces the chance of being hit by 5%, but also reduces movement speed. Champion and Fighter have heavy armor proficiency.

Armor class proficiency can be broken into a few different groups of classes, shown in the tables below. For the highest proficiency classes, the chance of being hit is 55-65% at most levels. Martial characters and armored casters with lesser proficiency have a 60-75% of being hit, 60-65% at lower levels and 70-75% at higher levels. Unarmored casters are not included in the tables as their armor class is heavily dependent on their Dexterity, but they have the same proficiency as the armored casters. Their chance of being hit is 5-25% higher depending on their Dexterity modifier (or the same if their Dexterity is +5).


Tables

Lower-Proficiency Martials: Alchemist, Barbarian, Investigator, Rogue, Swashbuckler

Armored Spellcasters: Bard, Druid, Oracle, Warpriest

Level Monster Attack Item Martial Proficiency Hit Chance Caster Proficiency Hit Chance
1 9 0 2 55% 2 55%
2 11 0 2 60% 2 60%
3 12 0 2 60% 2 60%
4 14 0 2 65% 2 65%
5 15 0 2 65% 2 65%
6 17 1 2 65% 2 65%
7 18 1 2 65% 2 65%
8 20 1 2 70% 2 70%
9 21 1 2 70% 2 70%
10 23 1 2 75% 2 75%
11 24 1 2 75% 2 75%
12 26 2 2 75% 2 75%
13 27 2 4 65% 4 65%
14 29 2 4 70% 4 70%
15 30 2 4 70% 4 70%
16 32 2 4 75% 4 75%
17 33 2 4 75% 4 75%
18 35 2 4 80% 4 80%
19 36 3 6 65% 4 75%
20 38 3 6 70% 4 80%

Higher-Proficiency Martials

  • Monk has +4 Dexterity until level 10
  • Champion and Fighter have Light/Medium Armor
Level Champion Chance Fighter Chance Monk* Chance Ranger Chance
1 2 55% 2 55% 4 50% 2 55%
2 2 60% 2 60% 4 55% 2 60%
3 2 60% 2 60% 4 55% 2 60%
4 2 65% 2 65% 4 60% 2 65%
5 2 65% 2 65% 4 60% 2 65%
6 2 65% 2 65% 4 60% 2 65%
7 4 55% 2 65% 4 60% 2 65%
8 4 60% 2 70% 4 65% 2 70%
9 4 60% 2 70% 4 65% 2 70%
10 4 65% 2 75% 4 65% 2 75%
11 4 65% 4 65% 4 65% 4 65%
12 4 65% 4 65% 4 65% 4 65%
13 6 55% 4 65% 6 55% 4 65%
14 6 60% 4 70% 6 60% 4 70%
15 6 60% 4 70% 6 60% 4 70%
16 6 65% 4 75% 6 65% 4 75%
17 8 55% 6 65% 8 55% 4 75%
18 8 60% 6 70% 8 60% 4 80%
19 8 55% 6 65% 8 55% 6 65%
20 8 60% 6 70% 8 60% 6 70%
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  • \$\begingroup\$ Very nice answer. I can't tell from it, though, whether the Fighter and/or Champion statistics are using heavy armor or not. It might be nice to explicitly call that out. \$\endgroup\$ – ESCE Jan 25 at 16:17
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    \$\begingroup\$ @ESCE "For the calculations I assume an Armor + Dexterity of 5 except for Monk." But that's pretty buried and not necessarily clear, I'll add a note to the tables as well. \$\endgroup\$ – WeirdFrog Jan 25 at 22:14
  • \$\begingroup\$ So a champion in Heavy Armor only gets crit on a 19 in 4 of these sections (10, 11, 12, 16), which is fascinating. Really drives home the usefulness of shields as well... a Heavy Armor fighter with a raised shield only gets crit on a 19 at levels 10 and 16. Very helpful table, thank you! \$\endgroup\$ – ESCE Jan 25 at 23:30
  • \$\begingroup\$ Is there a reason you chose the 'high' range for monster attack values? I'd probably make a note that "Moderate" attackers have consistently 10% less chance to hit (and while I was at it note that Extreme attackers, those that rely solely on being good at hitting accurately, are have 10% better chance to hit/crit. I understand leaving out the 'low' scale, being the scale for creatures not expected be using those attacks unless cornered \$\endgroup\$ – Ifusaso Apr 1 at 16:51

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