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My 11th level Rogue has the Black Market Connections Rogue Talent. The party is staying in Nerosyan, which is a metropolis, for a whole month. So assuming he searches the market, he can find all non-major magic items and 3d8 major magic items. But when do you roll again? If you leave town and come back the next day, it doesn't make sense for the Market to "refresh," but neither does it make sense for the market to stay entirely stagnant for an entire month. So my question is, is there somewhere that states how this works, or is it just up to the GM?

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Yes, from the Settlement and Kingdom Building rules.

Since the Rogue Talent Black Market Connections mentions Settlements specifically it would make sense to examine those rules to see how quickly magical item slots change over.

From the Magic Items in Settlements section it mentions that magic item slots are filled (50% chance) every Upkeep Phase.

Diving into the Kingdom Building rules, we see that the Upkeep Phase is the first of a set of four. Four phases that together constitute a month of time. So you would see each magical item cycle monthly with a 50% chance of a change.

Since there is a 3d8 quantity (of certain levels of magical items) involved in the Rogue Talent, perhaps it would make sense to roll that first to determine if the number of magical items has risen or dropped before rolling the 50% to see if an item has changed or not (including 50% chance new slots generate nothing).

As for what day of the month... up to your DM/GM.

Additional (assist credit to RevenantBacon): Under the Settlement Stat Block the section "Base Value and Purchase Limit" mentions there is a 75% chance any magical item of the settlements 'base value' or less can be obtained. If it isn't available then the percentage chance is re-rolled weekly.

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    \$\begingroup\$ It may be worth mentioning that the Kingdom Building rules are for cases where the players are running a kingdom. Suggestions for a DM running kingdoms are in the Gamemastery Guide, and probably other places. \$\endgroup\$ Jun 25, 2021 at 3:08
  • \$\begingroup\$ @indigochild The link I included to Kingdom Building is from the Gamemastery section of d20PFSRD, does that not make it a part of the Gamemastery Guide? \$\endgroup\$
    – niekell
    Jun 25, 2021 at 6:08
  • \$\begingroup\$ It's also worth noting that when shopping for magic items, if players are looking for a specific magic item, then the %chance that a settlement has one available can be re-rolled once per week. \$\endgroup\$ Jun 25, 2021 at 13:25
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Black Market Connections does not operate on any time frame. The section you are referring to says:

If the settlement is already a metropolis, all minor and medium magic items are for sale, as well as 3d8 major magic items.

As you can see, time is not directly related to the ability. You simply have the ability to buy these items.

Whether or not these items change at all over time, and how often, is up to the GM. They may choose to use the settlement rules from the Gamemastery Guide, which provide this guidance regarding restocking magical items:

If the PCs return to that city at a later date, you can roll up new items as you see fit.

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What I've done

In my gaming group, we don't care enough about the particulars of a city's market to roll a bunch of d% based on the settlement rules, so we handle things a little more loosely. This method has worked for us across a number of Pathfinder Adventure Paths and GM's.

Essentially, the market moves every week. Unless a PC expresses interest in a specific item (eg puts a hold on it with the merchant), all items are assumed to have been sold or put on a trade caravan to another place where it might be more appreciated a week after they are rolled into existence. At that point, a new roll is made for new magic item opportunities. We have not had a player take Black Market Connections specifically (although some cities did have Black Markets you could access in other ways) but I'd have refreshed those goods as well (and called for a new Diplomacy check if the Rogue wanted those benefits).

This system isn't perfect but it's fast and provides the players with a larger number of available items for a given time frame than other methods. Nobody in my gaming group (over 10 players) has spoken against the system, and it's basically assumed that its in use for a campaign unless a GM says otherwise.

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