Long Story Short: The new Feat is actually stronger at most levels of play
As expected, the higher the Armor Class of the target, the worse the older GWM feat is, and the better the newer GWM feat is. So the determining factor is at what Armor Classes the new feat "breaks even".
What we find, if we look at the numbers, is that the break-even point for each level occurs at surprisingly low Armor Class values, and this remains true for most levels of play.
Assumptions and Scenario
We will first need to make a few assumptions, to have controllable variables.
First, we will assume that we are working with a fighter, at various levels between level 1 and 20. She takes the Great Weapon Fighting Style (reroll damage roll dice that roll a 2 or lower), uses a Greatsword, and has a 17 in Strength at level 1.
In D&D 5e, she is a variant human that takes the Great Weapon Master feat at level 1, and then takes Strength ASIs at levels 4 and 6 to get to 19 and 20 strength, respectively, at those levels.
In OneD&D, she takes the Great Weapon Master feat at level 4, which bumps her strength up to 18, and then takes the Ability Score Increase feat at level 6 to increase her strength to 20.
In both versions, we assume she is fighting a single enemy creature with infinite Hit Points. This means that the only way to gain the Bonus Action attack is to deal a critical hit. We are going to ignore Subclass features, and use the features of the baseline PHB2014 Fighter class.
Directly Comparing the Damage
Running these stats through a probability calculator, we arrive at the following table of average Damage per Round (DPR) that our fighter deals at her level. Since these values depend heavily on the armor class of her opponent, we add columns that adjust for varying Armor Class values, ranging from 0 (i.e. we assume she lands every single hit that isn't a natural 1) to 25 (i.e. the highest unmodified armor class of any statted creature in 5th Edition D&D, which we are using because OneD&D does not have any discrete creature blocks yet).
I've removed any rows that aren't accessible (for example, the new fighter cannot gain any Great Weapon Master features until level 4) or where the level change had no effect (there is no numerical change to damage output between levels 1 to 2, for example).
Armor Class columns are limited due to the formatting limitations on this website, as adding more would push the table off the page, so looking at a total range of possible Armor Class values, I've truncated the list down to just the thresholds at which the Armor Class actually swings the delta from the old feat to the new feat (or vise-versa), which starts at Armor Class 14 and goes up. Below Armor Class 14, the old feat always has higher damage output, and above Armor Class 18, the new feat always has higher damage output. In between, depends on the level of the character.
"Adv" stands for Advantage, "Dis" stands for Disadvantage. "w/feat" means the feat was taken, but only the Bonus Action attack is being used (if permitted by the rolls), not the extra damage, which applies only to the old feat (because there is no opportunity cost for using the bonus damage with the new feat).
|
AC 13 |
AC 14 |
AC 15 |
AC 16 |
AC 17 |
AC 18 |
AC 20 |
Level 1 Greatsword |
7.783 |
7.217 |
6.650 |
6.083 |
5.517 |
4.950 |
3.817 |
Level 1 Greatsword Adv |
10.758 |
10.332 |
9.851 |
9.312 |
8.717 |
8.066 |
6.593 |
Level 1 Greatsword Dis |
4.809 |
4.101 |
3.449 |
2.854 |
2.316 |
1.834 |
1.041 |
Level 1 Greatsword w/feat |
8.172 |
7.577 |
6.982 |
6.388 |
5.793 |
5.197 |
4.008 |
Level 1 Greatsword w/feat Adv |
11.806 |
11.340 |
10.811 |
10.220 |
9.567 |
8.852 |
7.235 |
Level 1 Greatsword w/feat Dis |
4.821 |
4.111 |
3.458 |
2.861 |
2.322 |
1.839 |
1.043 |
Level 1 Greatsword OldGWM |
9.398 |
8.277 |
7.157 |
6.037 |
4.918 |
3.797 |
1.558 |
Level 1 Greatsword OldGWM Adv |
15.876 |
14.413 |
12.833 |
11.135 |
9.321 |
7.389 |
3.175 |
Level 1 Greatsword OldGWM Dis |
3.443 |
2.641 |
1.946 |
1.358 |
0.876 |
0.502 |
0.074 |
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|
Level 4 Greatsword |
9.050 |
8.433 |
7.817 |
7.200 |
6.583 |
5.967 |
4.733 |
Level 4 Greatsword Adv |
12.036 |
11.635 |
11.172 |
10.648 |
10.062 |
9.415 |
7.935 |
Level 4 Greatsword Dis |
6.064 |
5.232 |
4.461 |
3.752 |
3.104 |
2.518 |
1.532 |
Level 4 Greatsword w/feat |
9.502 |
8.855 |
8.207 |
7.560 |
6.912 |
6.265 |
4.970 |
Level 4 Greatsword w/feat Adv |
13.209 |
12.769 |
12.262 |
11.687 |
11.044 |
10.333 |
8.709 |
Level 4 Greatsword w/feat Dis |
6.079 |
5.245 |
4.472 |
3.761 |
3.112 |
2.525 |
1.535 |
Level 4 Greatsword OldGWM |
10.990 |
9.818 |
8.645 |
7.473 |
6.300 |
5.128 |
2.783 |
Level 4 Greatsword OldGWM Adv |
17.988 |
16.579 |
15.047 |
13.392 |
11.615 |
9.716 |
5.549 |
Level 4 Greatsword OldGWM Dis |
4.555 |
3.603 |
2.764 |
2.036 |
1.420 |
0.916 |
0.245 |
Level 4 Greatsword NewGWM |
10.902 |
10.155 |
9.408 |
8.660 |
7.912 |
7.165 |
5.670 |
Level 4 Greatsword NewGWM Adv |
15.029 |
14.524 |
13.942 |
13.282 |
12.544 |
11.728 |
9.864 |
Level 4 Greatsword NewGWM Dis |
7.059 |
6.090 |
5.192 |
4.366 |
3.612 |
2.930 |
1.780 |
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|
Level 5 Greatsword |
19.333 |
18.100 |
16.867 |
15.633 |
14.400 |
13.167 |
10.700 |
Level 5 Greatsword Adv |
24.750 |
24.072 |
23.270 |
22.345 |
21.297 |
20.125 |
17.412 |
Level 5 Greatsword Dis |
13.917 |
12.128 |
10.463 |
8.922 |
7.503 |
6.208 |
3.988 |
Level 5 Greatsword w/feat |
19.938 |
18.688 |
17.436 |
16.180 |
14.922 |
13.660 |
11.128 |
Level 5 Greatsword w/feat Adv |
26.032 |
25.351 |
24.543 |
23.609 |
22.545 |
21.351 |
18.566 |
Level 5 Greatsword w/feat Dis |
13.942 |
12.151 |
10.484 |
8.940 |
7.519 |
6.222 |
3.998 |
Level 5 Greatsword OldGWM |
24.035 |
21.744 |
19.448 |
17.146 |
14.838 |
12.525 |
7.882 |
Level 5 Greatsword OldGWM Adv |
37.265 |
34.861 |
32.215 |
29.321 |
26.178 |
22.779 |
15.197 |
Level 5 Greatsword OldGWM Dis |
11.233 |
9.107 |
7.205 |
5.526 |
4.071 |
2.840 |
1.049 |
Level 5 Greatsword NewGWM |
22.750 |
21.418 |
20.068 |
18.701 |
17.314 |
15.910 |
13.048 |
Level 5 Greatsword NewGWM Adv |
29.020 |
28.326 |
27.498 |
26.532 |
25.422 |
24.164 |
21.177 |
Level 5 Greatsword NewGWM Dis |
16.367 |
14.371 |
12.483 |
10.711 |
9.060 |
7.534 |
4.881 |
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Level 6 Greatsword |
22.167 |
20.833 |
19.500 |
18.167 |
16.833 |
15.500 |
12.833 |
Level 6 Greatsword Adv |
27.225 |
26.625 |
25.892 |
25.025 |
24.025 |
22.892 |
20.225 |
Level 6 Greatsword Dis |
17.108 |
15.042 |
13.108 |
11.308 |
9.642 |
8.108 |
5.442 |
Level 6 Greatsword w/feat |
22.832 |
21.484 |
20.134 |
18.780 |
17.422 |
16.062 |
13.331 |
Level 6 Greatsword w/feat Adv |
28.605 |
28.004 |
27.267 |
26.394 |
25.384 |
24.234 |
21.509 |
Level 6 Greatsword w/feat Dis |
17.137 |
15.069 |
13.133 |
11.331 |
9.661 |
8.126 |
5.454 |
Level 6 Greatsword OldGWM |
27.461 |
25.073 |
22.679 |
20.280 |
17.875 |
15.464 |
10.624 |
Level 6 Greatsword OldGWM Adv |
41.119 |
38.857 |
36.345 |
33.580 |
30.557 |
27.272 |
19.898 |
Level 6 Greatsword OldGWM Dis |
14.188 |
11.734 |
9.513 |
7.526 |
5.772 |
4.252 |
1.913 |
Level 6 Greatsword NewGWM |
25.712 |
24.297 |
22.864 |
21.412 |
19.942 |
18.454 |
15.423 |
Level 6 Greatsword NewGWM Adv |
31.601 |
30.992 |
30.243 |
29.349 |
28.307 |
27.111 |
24.235 |
Level 6 Greatsword NewGWM Dis |
19.749 |
17.494 |
15.353 |
13.330 |
11.433 |
9.666 |
6.546 |
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Level 9 Greatsword |
23.500 |
22.167 |
20.833 |
19.500 |
18.167 |
16.833 |
14.167 |
Level 9 Greatsword Adv |
27.692 |
27.225 |
26.625 |
25.892 |
25.025 |
24.025 |
21.625 |
Level 9 Greatsword Dis |
19.308 |
17.108 |
15.042 |
13.108 |
11.308 |
9.642 |
6.708 |
Level 9 Greatsword w/feat |
24.176 |
22.832 |
21.484 |
20.134 |
18.780 |
17.422 |
14.698 |
Level 9 Greatsword w/feat Adv |
29.072 |
28.605 |
28.004 |
27.267 |
26.394 |
25.384 |
22.943 |
Level 9 Greatsword w/feat Dis |
19.339 |
17.137 |
15.069 |
13.133 |
11.331 |
9.661 |
6.723 |
Level 9 Greatsword OldGWM |
29.843 |
27.461 |
25.073 |
22.679 |
20.280 |
17.875 |
13.047 |
Level 9 Greatsword OldGWM Adv |
43.134 |
41.119 |
38.857 |
36.345 |
33.580 |
30.557 |
23.721 |
Level 9 Greatsword OldGWM Dis |
16.876 |
14.188 |
11.734 |
9.513 |
7.526 |
5.772 |
2.965 |
Level 9 Greatsword NewGWM |
28.086 |
26.672 |
25.234 |
23.774 |
22.290 |
20.782 |
17.698 |
Level 9 Greatsword NewGWM Adv |
33.070 |
32.599 |
31.988 |
31.235 |
30.334 |
29.281 |
26.693 |
Level 9 Greatsword NewGWM Dis |
23.031 |
20.619 |
18.303 |
16.093 |
13.997 |
12.023 |
8.473 |
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Level 11 Greatsword |
35.250 |
33.250 |
31.250 |
29.250 |
27.250 |
25.250 |
21.250 |
Level 11 Greatsword Adv |
41.538 |
40.837 |
39.938 |
38.837 |
37.538 |
36.038 |
32.438 |
Level 11 Greatsword Dis |
28.962 |
25.663 |
22.562 |
19.663 |
16.962 |
14.463 |
10.062 |
Level 11 Greatsword w/feat |
35.939 |
33.937 |
31.934 |
29.928 |
27.919 |
25.907 |
21.870 |
Level 11 Greatsword w/feat Adv |
42.919 |
42.220 |
41.322 |
40.224 |
38.925 |
37.426 |
33.821 |
Level 11 Greatsword w/feat Dis |
28.995 |
25.694 |
22.593 |
19.692 |
16.990 |
14.487 |
10.082 |
Level 11 Greatsword OldGWM |
44.374 |
40.845 |
37.307 |
33.761 |
30.206 |
26.639 |
19.473 |
Level 11 Greatsword OldGWM Adv |
63.597 |
60.617 |
57.281 |
53.585 |
49.524 |
45.093 |
35.081 |
Level 11 Greatsword OldGWM Dis |
25.306 |
21.276 |
17.596 |
14.266 |
11.286 |
8.657 |
4.448 |
Level 11 Greatsword NewGWM |
39.925 |
37.905 |
35.871 |
33.820 |
31.747 |
29.651 |
25.370 |
Level 11 Greatsword NewGWM Adv |
46.918 |
46.220 |
45.321 |
44.221 |
42.918 |
41.410 |
37.759 |
Level 11 Greatsword NewGWM Dis |
32.910 |
29.508 |
26.258 |
23.161 |
20.219 |
17.439 |
12.394 |
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|
Level 13 Greatsword |
37.250 |
35.250 |
33.250 |
31.250 |
29.250 |
27.250 |
23.250 |
Level 13 Greatsword Adv |
42.038 |
41.538 |
40.837 |
39.938 |
38.837 |
37.538 |
34.337 |
Level 13 Greatsword Dis |
32.462 |
28.962 |
25.663 |
22.562 |
19.663 |
16.962 |
12.162 |
Level 13 Greatsword w/feat |
37.939 |
35.939 |
33.937 |
31.934 |
29.928 |
27.919 |
23.890 |
Level 13 Greatsword w/feat Adv |
43.418 |
42.919 |
42.220 |
41.322 |
40.224 |
38.925 |
35.725 |
Level 13 Greatsword w/feat Dis |
32.496 |
28.995 |
25.694 |
22.593 |
19.692 |
16.990 |
12.185 |
Level 13 Greatsword OldGWM |
47.897 |
44.374 |
40.845 |
37.307 |
33.761 |
30.206 |
23.062 |
Level 13 Greatsword OldGWM Adv |
66.223 |
63.597 |
60.617 |
57.281 |
53.585 |
49.524 |
40.282 |
Level 13 Greatsword OldGWM Dis |
29.685 |
25.306 |
21.276 |
17.596 |
14.266 |
11.286 |
6.377 |
Level 13 Greatsword NewGWM |
42.934 |
40.922 |
38.897 |
36.855 |
34.793 |
32.704 |
28.435 |
Level 13 Greatsword NewGWM Adv |
48.418 |
47.918 |
47.220 |
46.320 |
45.220 |
43.916 |
40.684 |
Level 13 Greatsword NewGWM Dis |
37.461 |
33.888 |
30.461 |
27.174 |
24.028 |
21.027 |
15.488 |
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Level 17 Greatsword |
39.250 |
37.250 |
35.250 |
33.250 |
31.250 |
29.250 |
25.250 |
Level 17 Greatsword Adv |
42.337 |
42.038 |
41.538 |
40.837 |
39.938 |
38.837 |
36.038 |
Level 17 Greatsword Dis |
36.163 |
32.462 |
28.962 |
25.663 |
22.562 |
19.663 |
14.463 |
Level 17 Greatsword w/feat |
39.939 |
37.939 |
35.939 |
33.937 |
31.934 |
29.928 |
25.907 |
Level 17 Greatsword w/feat Adv |
43.717 |
43.418 |
42.919 |
42.220 |
41.322 |
40.224 |
37.426 |
Level 17 Greatsword w/feat Dis |
36.196 |
32.496 |
28.995 |
25.694 |
22.593 |
19.692 |
14.487 |
Level 17 Greatsword OldGWM |
51.414 |
47.897 |
44.374 |
40.845 |
37.307 |
33.761 |
26.639 |
Level 17 Greatsword OldGWM Adv |
68.498 |
66.223 |
63.597 |
60.617 |
57.281 |
53.585 |
45.093 |
Level 17 Greatsword OldGWM Dis |
34.413 |
29.685 |
25.306 |
21.276 |
17.596 |
14.266 |
8.657 |
Level 17 Greatsword NewGWM |
45.938 |
43.933 |
41.919 |
39.889 |
37.840 |
35.766 |
31.523 |
Level 17 Greatsword NewGWM Adv |
49.717 |
49.418 |
48.918 |
48.220 |
47.320 |
46.219 |
43.402 |
Level 17 Greatsword NewGWM Dis |
42.190 |
38.455 |
34.867 |
31.414 |
28.091 |
24.896 |
18.914 |
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Level 20 Greatsword |
52.333 |
49.667 |
47.000 |
44.333 |
41.667 |
39.000 |
33.667 |
Level 20 Greatsword Adv |
56.450 |
56.050 |
55.383 |
54.450 |
53.250 |
51.783 |
48.050 |
Level 20 Greatsword Dis |
48.217 |
43.283 |
38.617 |
34.217 |
30.083 |
26.217 |
19.283 |
Level 20 Greatsword w/feat |
53.022 |
50.356 |
47.691 |
45.025 |
42.358 |
39.691 |
34.350 |
Level 20 Greatsword w/feat Adv |
57.829 |
57.430 |
56.764 |
55.833 |
54.634 |
53.170 |
49.443 |
Level 20 Greatsword w/feat Dis |
48.250 |
43.317 |
38.650 |
34.250 |
30.116 |
26.248 |
19.311 |
Level 20 Greatsword OldGWM |
68.187 |
63.514 |
58.837 |
54.155 |
49.466 |
44.769 |
35.341 |
Level 20 Greatsword OldGWM Adv |
90.545 |
87.515 |
84.018 |
80.054 |
75.621 |
70.719 |
59.485 |
Level 20 Greatsword OldGWM Dis |
45.871 |
39.569 |
33.732 |
28.361 |
23.457 |
19.018 |
11.541 |
Level 20 Greatsword NewGWM |
59.022 |
56.356 |
53.688 |
51.015 |
48.335 |
45.642 |
40.197 |
Level 20 Greatsword NewGWM Adv |
63.829 |
63.430 |
62.764 |
61.833 |
60.634 |
59.170 |
55.439 |
Level 20 Greatsword NewGWM Dis |
54.250 |
49.309 |
44.614 |
40.149 |
35.896 |
31.842 |
24.305 |
Observations
It's clear from initial observation that the new feat is better than the old feat in most combat situations.
In the levels 1-3 range, the old feat is obviously better just because the new feat isn't even obtainable yet, since it has a level 4 prerequisite. So the old feat (obtainable at level 1) dominates for several levels uncontested.
Once we get to level 4, though, things change. We see that at AC 13, we see that the old feat is better (10.990→10.902 for a -0.801% decrease), but at AC 14, the new feat is better (9.818→10.155 for a 3.432% increase). In my experience as DM, by this point in the game, a player should reasonably expect an enemy creature to have an armor class of around 14-16, with higher or lower values tending to be outliers—Armor Classes lower than 14 tend to be trivial, filler creatures that aren't meant to threaten the party, and Armor Classes higher than 16 tend to be boss monsters or unusual, non-typical encounters.
Levels 5-6 see some power increase for the older version of the feat, since the extra attack, proficiency increase, and (at level 6) strength increase scale better for the old version of the feat than they do for the newer version. This makes sense: a flat damage increase to one attack isn't going to scale as well as to-hit & damage increases to multiple attacks, and the +to-hit for old GWM is more powerful than the +to-hit for new GWM. But, even at these levels, Armor Class 15 continues to be better for the new feat than the old feat (19.448→20.068 for a 3.188% improvement). And it'll continue to be better all the way up to level 10.
Level 11, with the third [baseline] attack, is where the new feat finally falls behind the old feat for Armor Class 15 (37.307→35.871 for a -3.849% decrease). But at this point, the new feat is still ahead for Armor Class 16 (33.761→33.820 for a 0.175% increase), and at this point in the game, the average armor class of enemy creatures ought to have gone up. Armor Class 16 is very typical for challenging encounters at level 11, and can often go as high as 18 or 20 depending on circumstances, while lower ACs are very rare.
At level 13, the improved proficiency bonus benefits the old feat more than the new one, so now the new Armor Class threshold is 17 (33.761→34.793 for a 3.057% increase), not 16 (37.307→36.855 for a -1.212% decrease). At this level one could argue that a character would rather have the old feat if the DM prefers lower armor class creatures. But as Armor Classes are going to continue to go up for the rest of Tier 3, that will cease to be the case.
Finally, only at level 20, does the threshold finally go up to Armor Class 18 (44.769→45.642 for a 1.950% increase). At a point in the game where PCs are expected to take on endgame challenges and gods whose Armor Class will rarely, if ever, dip below 20.
The facts are very clear: there are some encounter scenarios where the old feat would provide higher damage output overall, but those scenarios tend to involve disproportionately low Armor Class creatures that the party is unlikely to find challenging to begin with.