15
\$\begingroup\$

Most any roll in Dungeon World that isn't a damage roll is 2d6 plus the relevant stat modifier. The results (barring explicit exceptions in the move) fall into the following three categories:

  • Failure (6-)
  • Partial Success (7-9)
  • Full Success (10+)

How likely is each outcome for the various modifiers?

\$\endgroup\$
  • \$\begingroup\$ This meta question talks about why this question covers only DW, not all Powered by the Apocalypse games. \$\endgroup\$ – Joel Harmon Sep 15 '16 at 2:03
27
\$\begingroup\$

The result of a roll is a bit more complicated than just 2d6+mod. Some moves, such as Aid, Bolster, and some item effects, grant +N forward or ongoing. Others, such as Interfere or Conditions, provide negative modifiers. That means the fixed range of stats modifiers (-3 to 3) isn't sufficient to show all possibilities in Dungeon World.

So, I've expanded the range to -5 to 5 for the following table. I've also included a column at @kviiri 's suggestion for the chance of 12+, which matters for triggering some moves.

\begin{array}{l|r|r|r|r|r} \text{Modifier} & \text{6 -} & \text{7 - 9} & \text{10 +} & &\text{12 +}\\ \hline \text -5 & 97.22\% & 2.77\% & 0.00\% & & 0.00\% \\ \text -4 & 91.67\% & 8.33\% & 0.00\% & & 0.00\% \\ \text -3 & 83.33\% & 16.67\% & 0.00\% & & 0.00\% \\ \text -2 & 72.22\% & 25.00\% & 2.77\% & & 0.00\% \\ \text -1 & 58.33\% & 33.33\% & 8.33\% & & 0.00\% \\ \text 0 & 41.67\% & 41.67\% & 16.67\% & & 2.77\% \\ \text 1 & 27.78\% & 44.44\% & 27.78\% & & 8.33\% \\ \text 2 & 16.67\% & 41.67\% & 41.67\% & & 16.67\% \\ \text 3 & 8.33\% & 33.33\% & 58.33\% & & 27.78\% \\ \text 4 & 2.77\% & 25.00\% & 72.22\% & & 41.67\% \\ \text 5 & 0.00\% & 16.67\% & 83.33\% & & 58.33\% \\ \end{array}

There's also an interesting turn of events here: Barbarians like to break things, including the 2d6 rule. They have two or more Appetites that allow/require them to instead roll 1d6 + 1d8. That results in the following table.

\begin{array}{l|r|r|r|r|r} \text{Modifier} & \text{6 -} & \text{7 - 9} & \text{10 +} & &\text{12 +} \\ \hline \text -5 & 87.50\% & 12.50\% & 0.00\% & & 0.00\% \\ \text -4 & 79.17\% & 18.75\% & 2.08\% & & 0.00\% \\ \text -3 & 68.75\% & 25.00\% & 6.25\% & & 0.00\% \\ \text -2 & 56.25\% & 31.25\% & 12.50\% & & 2.08\% \\ \text -1 & 43.75\% & 35.42\% & 20.83\% & & 6.25\% \\ \text 0 & 31.25\% & 37.50\% & 31.25\% & & 12.50\% \\ \text 1 & 20.83\% & 35.42\% & 43.75\% & & 20.83\% \\ \text 2 & 12.50\% & 31.25\% & 56.25\% & & 31.25\% \\ \text 3 & 6.25\% & 25.00\% & 68.75\% & & 43.75\% \\ \text 4 & 2.08\% & 18.75\% & 79.17\% & & 56.25\% \\ \text 5 & 0.00\% & 12.50\% & 87.50\% & & 68.75\% \\ \end{array}

Bonus: the Appetites move also has a clause that triggers when the d6 rolls higher than the d8. This chance is independent of the modifier, and is 31.25%

\$\endgroup\$
  • 2
    \$\begingroup\$ There are some moves that only trigger with 12+, you might want to include that as a separate column. \$\endgroup\$ – kviiri Jul 18 '16 at 11:59
  • 1
    \$\begingroup\$ I think a 'success' column would be good too. It's kind of difficult to see exactly the chance of 7+ by looking at this table. And that's probably one of the more important figures to note. \$\endgroup\$ – Cyberspark Jul 18 '16 at 13:51
  • 2
    \$\begingroup\$ @Cyberspark That's easy - it is just 100% - first column. So easy to see you step over 50% at Mod+0 and over 90% at Mod+3 \$\endgroup\$ – Falco Jul 18 '16 at 14:51
  • \$\begingroup\$ @kviiri thanks for the suggestion; I've added the column. \$\endgroup\$ – Joel Harmon Jul 19 '16 at 2:15
  • \$\begingroup\$ @Cyberspark I'm inclined to agree with Falco that it's pretty easy to get a rough idea of the non-failure rate by subtracting the failure rate from 100. I couldn't come up with a way to include that in the table that wasn't confusing with respect to either the new +12 column or the existing full success column, so I'm currently opting to not include it. \$\endgroup\$ – Joel Harmon Jul 19 '16 at 2:18

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.