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The Craft tree in exalted is kind of hard in the Power category. Now I have a trouble if my recursive interpretation is right.

  • Let's assume a dexterity 5 intelligence 5 craft (something) 5 Solar. So the base pool is 10 dice. Atop it is a craft supernal, so essence is of no concern unless it is referenced for dice pools/boni
  • 10 extra dice for 10 motes by using the excellency

  • 2x6 motes for Flawless Handiwork Method II (p297)

    • Reroll any 10 and 6 (increase the pool)
  • 4 motes, 4 silver, 4 gold, 4 white for Experiential Conjuring of True Void + First Movement of the Demiurge
    • 1 automatic success & (Essence) non-charm dice to the pool, if Essence >=3: also add (Intelligence) non-charm dice to the pool
    • count successful triplets of numbers (7, 8, 9, 10) - for each turn one non-successful die to a 10
    • check if this makes a triplet full, if yes: turn another one to 10
    • do rerolls for Flawless Handiwork Method
    • check for rerolls (FHM) & new triplets (FMotD)
  • Divine Inspiration Technique
    • count successful dice, divide by 3, round down: roll this number of non-charm dice
    • count the new successes and apply DIT
    • apply FHM on all these new dice (recursively)
    • apply FMotD on the new dice & apply FHM on these (which can lead to recursion)
  • 2 motes 1 white for Surpreme Masterwork Focus III (p297)
    • double 7 = count the number of successful dice after all the manipulations and multiply by 2

Am I correct in applying this multiple times recursive method?

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Apparently, yes, that double or triple recursive behavior seems to be intended.

With the listed charms the handy http://wiseartificersinsight.com/ tells us that a single (terminus 1) difficulty 5 roll will result in the following results over a milllion tests:

Mean threshold successes per attempt: μ = 58.52

Standard Deviation of threshold successes per attempt: σ = 23.72

Median of threshold successes per attempt: 53

Initial size of crafting die pools: 22

However, that is not yet the tip of the iceberg:

Adding Unbroken Image Focus, (Breach Healing Method), Mind Expanding Meditation, Divine Inspiration Technique, (Realizing the Form Supernal), Holistic Miracle understanding, and Sun-Heart Tenacity (and having made a legendary before the project), the starting pool becomes 32(or 34). It also becomes extra recursive/itterative in so many steps, that the following results happen:

Mean threshold successes per attempt: μ ~ 1160-70

Standard Deviation of threshold successes per attempt: σ ~ 140

Median of threshold successes per attempt: 1155-1165

Initial size of crafting die pools: 32

The downside is, that these extra charms cost extra:

You have to spend 3 more motes, 5 more silver and 1 more white craft XP for the base costs and atop that 1 silver, gold and white (which comes down to 7 silver to be handled before the roll using the prana shifting thing) for each successful dice on the initial roll to buy extra successes. The two charms you could add for repair just cost 12 more motes and a white point atop that price.

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