@Mołot In terms of roleplaying, yes. Mechanically, with kingdom building rules, as long as you don't care what the base value of items you can buy is, then you can get along without. (Of course the DM could bring in a storyline about how the citizens demand it)

Even if it predicts a good event and a bad event that are both related (lose your money, but your mark approaches you), that's the opposite of what you said in your answer, which is that you would get nothing, and that you couldn't predict it.

@ShadowKras You could just as easily bet on a game of Roulette. "What is the result if I put all my money on red" - "Weal".