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May 16, 2019 at 1:25 comment added Gregor Thomas In trying to generalize beyond specific thresholds, I do think these concepts/this answer adds value. Adding up the area is adding up probabilities, not values, so I don't think your point about "the amount by which the roll exceeds" applies to that, I agree with @Errorsatz, it would probably be appropriate to truncate the graph at x = 20. Overall, the sum of the differences is 1.675 in favor of 1d30, but if we only consider checks <= 20, then the sum is 0.1583 in favor of d20 with advantage. I'll maybe make some edits tomorrow to include this helpful feedback from both of you, thanks!
May 16, 2019 at 1:20 comment added Gregor Thomas @prl I think your point is strong when it comes to expected value, which is why I put that near the end with a caveat. For any individual DC, there is a clear choice of which is better---if the player knows the threshold and all that matters is exceeding the threshold, there is no risk/reward trade-off at all---there is one choice that has a higher probability of success.
May 16, 2019 at 0:46 comment added Errorsatz I don't think this applies in most cases, due to the fact that rolls that require 21+ pre-modifiers are going to be extremely rare - they would be flat-out impossible in standard 5E, hence probably something you'd only run into when trying to punch way above your weight class. Within the standard range, 1d30 is worse 70% of the time.
May 15, 2019 at 20:33 comment added prl This is an interesting point, but I'm not sure it really applies. Usually, the only consideration is whether the roll exceeds a threshold or not; the amount by which the roll exceeds the threshold doesn't matter. The area (or sum of differences) would only be applicable in cases where the actual value rolled is relevant.
May 15, 2019 at 17:55 history edited Gregor Thomas CC BY-SA 4.0
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May 15, 2019 at 16:35 comment added Someone_Evil Welcome to RPG.SE! Take the tour if you haven't already, and check out the help center for more guidance. Good Luck and Happy Gaming!
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May 15, 2019 at 16:30 history answered Gregor Thomas CC BY-SA 4.0