Timeline for How can I map a single d20 to a number of hits? (use case: Animate Objects)
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
23 events
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| Mar 11, 2023 at 15:48 | comment | added | Oly | This answer is good; it nearly answers the question (while relying on access to 4d4 or 3d6 which should be no issue in practice assuming we already have a d20)! Combining dice to get a distribution closer to normal to begin with is nice. If you wanted a better fit to the actual distribution, especially when the probability of a hit is especially low or high, you could combine it with the 'What's p_hit?' and 'Going from quantile back to hits outcome' parts of my answer, and generate tables for adjusting those cases. | |
| Mar 9, 2023 at 9:43 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
mention bounded accuracy
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| Mar 9, 2023 at 8:08 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
tweak alpha on bars
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| Mar 9, 2023 at 7:55 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
use area plot for true, the line thickness was inflating the apparent area too much
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| Mar 9, 2023 at 6:01 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Mar 9, 2023 at 5:56 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Mar 9, 2023 at 5:36 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
new plots, 4d4 + 10 for the 20 attack case
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| Mar 8, 2023 at 10:31 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Mar 8, 2023 at 9:27 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Mar 8, 2023 at 9:12 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Mar 7, 2023 at 19:48 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Mar 7, 2023 at 13:26 | comment | added | Eddymage | Let us continue this discussion in chat. | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 13:15 | comment | added | Anne Aunyme | @Eddymage as you don't have 20 objects, you have to multiply the total by N/20, where N is the number of animated objects | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 13:11 | comment | added | Anne Aunyme | For 20 attacks, assuming an attack bonus of +0 and an AC of 10 (to keep things simple), one would normally expect an average of 10 hits, including a crit. With this method you get 3d6 hits (average of 10.5) including one crit on average. | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 13:10 | comment | added | Eddymage | I see several problems here: suppose the the 3d6 sums to 16, the target's AC is 12: then the final score is 22, which provides 11 hits on 10 attacks. You can threshold it, obviously, but it does not seem to reliable nor scalable. If I have 7 objects, what is the computation? | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 13:04 | comment | added | Anne Aunyme | @Eddymage: You can't reliably model the original distribution anyway (see Alan's answer), so at best you will have an approximation. | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 12:58 | comment | added | Eddymage | @AnneAunyme Can you define "too far away"? Because if this is the premise, then I believe that this method is not reliable and does not model the original distribution (To be honest, I didn't check mathematically, yet). | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 12:55 | comment | added | Anne Aunyme | @Eddymage: it continues to work fine as long as the hit probability doesn't move too far away from 50% | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 9:13 | comment | added | Eddymage | So your method is based on hit probability of 50%, or am I missing something? | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 9:10 | comment | added | HighDiceRoller | To first-order this is accounted for by the margin of success: every +1/-1 difference in attack bonus and AC produces 1 more or fewer hit per 20 attacks as desired. But as hit chance gets far from 50% then you start to see more higher-order error due to the target standard deviation and normality decreasing, going deeper into the tails which is more sensitive to imperfections in matching standard deviation, not being able to get below 0 hits, etc. | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 8:53 | comment | added | Eddymage | "If we figure that the typical hit chance is close to 50%": why? It depends on attack bonus and target's AC, doesn't it? | |
| Mar 7, 2023 at 7:12 | history | edited | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Mar 7, 2023 at 7:06 | history | answered | HighDiceRoller | CC BY-SA 4.0 |