There are 4 limitations I can think of that a deceitful little vagabond would have to overcome in order to use Shape Water to implement such a deplorable scheme (5 if you include not being able to sleep at night):
- The rules governing Shape Water
- The freedom / interpretation allowed by your DM
- How well your character can can pull off your scheme
- Your creativity as a player
1. The rules governing Shape Water
This is well covered in the other answers so I won't give it too much more space other than to mention that the rules for Shape Water are rather vague. At the time of writing there are 17 questions that deal with Shape Water and they clarify some additional details such as it not working on snow / ice, it not letting you fly and it not creating vacuum bombs, so it is worth reading through those as well to see if any of the scams you come up with rely on ideas already strongly ruled out.
2. The freedom / interpretation allowed by your DM
With the vagueness of the rules mentioned in #1 it will of course be up to you and your DM come to an agreement over whether a given usage of Shape Water is in keeping with the nature in which the spell is intended. In other words, the limitations on the spell is what the DM says it is! If you have a fairly open table with a strong Rule of Cool for Spells then you'll likely find you can get away with a lot more, until you start taking the mick.
3. How well your character can can pull off your scheme
So you've found something you believe is within the rules, your DM has allowed it, but that doesn't mean it is going to work! If Penn & Teller were given a set of cards, and I was given a set of cards, I'm willing to bet you'd be a lot more impressed with the tricks that Penn & Teller can perform compared to me! Your stats, particularly Deception, Performance, Persuasion and Sleight of Hand, will all factor in to how well Shape Water fits into your charade. Keep in mind, swindling people isn't so much about the props you use, it's about how much you can reel them in!!
4. Your creativity as a player
You're doing great at this! The 3 ideas you've came up with are pretty creative but as we've seen they come up against obstacles set out by the rules of the spell. I think the reason for this is that you are looking at the problem the wrong way round: You are looking at typical scams (loaded dice, trick cards) and thinking about how you can use water in them, you should be looking at water and thinking about how you can turn it into a scam!
If you can overcome these 4 limitations I certainly feel like you could run a lucrative hussle using Shape Water in your scams. You may not become rich overnight, but it could certainly make you a little extra coin on the side.
Here are a few examples I think could work within the rules that can hopefully springboard your own creativeness (and let's be honest, creating these is really the reason I wrote this answer, although I think the rest stands on its own as well):
The Salt Water Challenge
A simple test of might that only the strongest warrior with the greatest of wills can survive! Simply hold this glass of salt water in your hands for 3 minutes* and take home the prize!
1 Gold to enter, 10 Gold for any who succeed!
Of course when your victim, I mean contestant, does hold the glass you cast your spell and slowly turn the water into ice! The strong warrior, knowing there would of course be some catch to the challenge, laughs at your puny attempts and holds the glass regardless. However, unknown to him the salt in the water actually lowers the melting point of the ice, allowing it to get as cold as -21 degrees Celsius before it starts to melt.
At this temperature frostbite sets in and they feel tingling and discomfort. If they continue to hold the glass then blisters form as second-degree frostbite start to appear. Eventually third degree frostbite starts and the affected area may turn black or yellow, red blisters form, a dull, throbbing pain and itching and burning sensations begins and eventually sensation is lost until the area rewarms.
*You may need to tweak the length of time. Read more on this real life phenomenon here.
Water You Drinkin'
A simple game of logic for all those with a superior mind and clever intellect. Just predict which tankard will be the first to fill when the water is released! So easy a child could do it!
1 Gold to enter, 10 Gold for any who succeed!
Finally, a use for those annoying puzzles that plague the internet every few months.
Set up a few kegs in the local tavern, and place a few runs under them with stoppers and the like to make it a little more interesting and have the runs lead to several tankards dotted throughout at different heights. Your victim, sorry contestant, selects the cup they believe will fill first, you release the water and then promptly adjust the flow so that it doesn't.
You may need to share a percentage of your gains with the tavern owner of course!
The Water Maze
Do you have the poise of a Lord, the self-controlled of a monk and the reactions of a panther? Then why not win some gold by filling this little vial at the end of the maze with the water from the top!
1 Gold to enter, 10 Gold for any who succeed!
A new take on an old classic and great for scamming on the go! Take a small wooden labyrinth maze like the one pictured above and adjust it so that instead of metal balls it uses a stream of water (not much, just a small amount you pour in) which the victim, not again! contestant sorry, has to navigate from one side of the board to the other in order to fill a small vial.
The base of the maze tilts using the twisters on the side which allow the contestant to navigate the water to avoid the holes in the board and perhaps a few hills to make the path the water will take less obvious. They'll be so engrossed in the game they won't stand a hope of seeing you cast a simple cantrip right in front of them to divert the water!