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Results tagged with statistics
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user 2620
Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games. This tag should be used for questions about tabletop game mathematics that relate to mechanics rather than game elements such as skills or attributes, and have relevance to RPGs in particular.
10
votes
How do I mathematically find this distribution?
As kviiri and Szega have noted, this is a binomial distribution.
Why? Because each rolled (and possibly rerolled) die is an independent Bernoulli trial — i.e. an experiment that has only two possibl …
- 24.8k
10
votes
Accepted
How can I determine the rolling curve of this roll under system?
This AnyDice program might be helpful:
\ count number of rolls less than or equal to target, with bonus for each 1 rolled \
function: roll ROLL:s vs TARGET:n {
result: (ROLL <= TARGET) + (ROLL = 1)
…
- 24.8k
7
votes
Chances of specific sequence in X amount of dice?
If I understand your question correctly, the mechanic you want to model is one where the player:
has (or is given) a list of \$M\$ target numbers;
rolls \$N \ge M\$ dice, all at once; and
tries to ma …
- 24.8k
8
votes
How to handle degrees of success in roll under systems
Is there some specific reason why a "blackjack resolution" (i.e. try to roll as high as possible, but no higher than your skill threshold) scheme, with double 1s always succeeding and double 6s always …
- 24.8k
13
votes
Accepted
What is the average roll of a die with an expanded explosion threshold as compared to one wi...
Here's an AnyDice program to simulate it:
function: test N:n against X:n reroll Y:n later Z:n {
if N >= Y { result: 1 + [test d6 against X reroll Z later Z] }
if N >= X { result: 1 }
resu …
- 24.8k
12
votes
Using AnyDice to determine the odds of getting a specific number sequence on multiple dice
It is, in fact, possible to do this with AnyDice:
function: compare A:s and B:s {
result: A = B
}
output [compare 4d6 and {5, 2, 2, 1}]
The trick here is that, when passing a die (like 4d6 here) …
- 24.8k
3
votes
Calculating 6D6 similar to poker dice
The general trick to calculating such odds is that the probability of rolling a result that matches some criterion equals the number of possible matching rolls, divided by the total number of possible …
- 24.8k
3
votes
Dice probabilities when rolling more dice than needed
Since you tagged this with anydice, here's a simple AnyDice function to calculate this:
function: SUB:s in SEQ:s {
loop N over SUB {
if (N = SUB) > (N = SEQ) { result: 0 }
}
result: 1
}
out …
- 24.8k
2
votes
How can I get the highest or lowest values of an irregular dice pool in AnyDice?
The answer I posted to a similar question can be pretty easily generalized to handle this:
function: sum IDX:s in A:s B:s {
result: IDX@[sort {A, B}]
}
output [sum {1,2} in 2d10 1d8] named "highe …
- 24.8k
2
votes
TWF or increased threat range: What's more likely to deliver a critical hit?
Assuming I got the mechanics down correctly, here's an AnyDice script to model them:
function: hit ROLL:n plus BONUS:n ac AC:n {
if ROLL = 1 { result: 0 }
if ROLL = 20 { result: 1 }
result: RO …
- 24.8k
3
votes
Accepted
Converting this action resolution mechanic from total rolled to highest die rolled
From the output of this basic AnyDice script, we can see that:
3d6 vs. TN 5 gives a 98.15% probability of success (i.e. a 1.75% probability of failure).
3d6 vs. TN 10 gives a 62.5% probability of su …
- 24.8k
4
votes
How can I calculate the difference between two rolls in AnyDice?
The general way to do this in AnyDice is to write a function that takes a sequence as a parameter, and pass the dice roll into the function, e.g. like this:
function: highest minus lowest of ROLL:s { …
- 24.8k
3
votes
For anydice.com, is there a way to set a total number for three rolls?
What you might be looking for is the empty die trick for rejecting "impossible" outcomes (i.e. results that you'll always reroll until they don't happen).
For example, here's how to model a mechanic …
- 24.8k
12
votes
Accepted
Is it possible to model these probabilities in AnyDice?
Here's a fairly efficient solution:
TARGET_DIST: [highest of 1@3d6 and [highest of 1@2d8 and 1@1d12]]
output TARGET_DIST named "highest of 3d6, 2d8 and 1d12"
function: roll versus TARGET:n {
P: d6 …
- 24.8k
4
votes
Anydice: Counting Successes and Rerolling Failures In Dice Pools
Your advantage and disadvantage mechanics are actually equivalent to the following ones:
Advantage: Roll 4d20 and take the lowest 3 rolls. Any roll under your stat is a success.
Disadvantage: Roll 4d …
- 24.8k