Questions tagged [statistics]

Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games. This tag should be used for questions about tabletop game mathematics that relate to mechanics rather than game elements such as skills or attributes, and have relevance to RPGs in particular.

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How can I discover what is the best dice (result)? [closed]

I have a lot of weapons on my own system and I want to split on four categories like, common, uncommon and stuff. How can I can discover which one has the best chance to get better results since some ...
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7 votes
1 answer
367 views

What information is available about the intended mathematics of D&D?

D&D 5e was heavily play-tested prior to its release. I have heard (but have not verified) that, at low levels, the hit rate of the attack rolls of PCs was intentionally optimized to be ...
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6 votes
2 answers
246 views

In determining the average damage of a single-turn string of two handed attacks, how should I add the average damage of my Sneak Attack?

The question relates to statistics, and how you add up odds. I'll spare you my function for determining the odds of a die roll. Assume for the sake of simplicity that the foe's AC is 11, and my attack ...
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11 votes
1 answer
1k views

What are the odds of being able to disrupt a spellcaster?

What are the chances that the opponent is able to get their attack in to disrupt a spellcaster as a function of casting time and weapon speed? Assume the opponent will hit, and use this summary of the ...
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1 vote
2 answers
108 views

How do I calculate the probabilities of two consecutive success results in AnyDice?

I know that rolling with disadvantage gives you a negative bonus in between 1 and 2, that's easy to calculate in anydice.com but how can I estimate the increasing in difficulty that adds an extra roll?...
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18 votes
4 answers
3k views

What deals more damage on a weapon, +1 to hit or +1 to damage?

Background: I'm introducing masterwork items for 5e as a homebrew rule, both to help players spend surplus gold on something useful when they cannot buy magic items, and to make shopping a bit more ...
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20 votes
4 answers
3k views

How can I implement a "passive stealth" that is mathematically equivalent to rolling stealth vs. passive perception?

I think the metagaming problem with rolling for stealth is fairly well-known: once the player rolls for stealth at the start of their sneaking, they know how high they rolled and might, consciously or ...
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-2 votes
2 answers
403 views

What is the estimated DPR for a hunter ranger?

I was wondering what the average amount of a damage per round by a human ranger with the Hunter subclass should be at each level? The answer should not include bonuses with magic items and should be ...
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11 votes
5 answers
2k views

Is it better to make two separate contested rolls or one with advantage?

I'm trying to model the benefit of enemies working together in contests with my PCs. Assume I have a pair of enemies that are attempting to shove a PC. They are smart enough for one to use the Help ...
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17 votes
2 answers
2k views

Is it mathematically better to roll one attack or two with disadvantage?

Rolling one attack with advantage is worse than rolling two normal attacks (because we have two attack rolls either way, but only one vs two chances of dealing dmaage). However, what of the inverse ...
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24 votes
7 answers
5k views

What are the odds of rolling high all the time?

So, I have a suspicion that a player in an online game is... being creative in the way they call their dice rolls. I play with them in several games, and in 2 games I have convinced the DM to enforce ...
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4 votes
4 answers
183 views

How do I get the sum of highest rolled dice normalized for dice count?

My goal it to model a system where you roll xd10 and get the sum of the highest result you got (so "6, 3, 5, 5" becomes 6 and "4, 4, 2, 4" becomes 12), and then see how each extra ...
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3 votes
2 answers
316 views

Can I get some help on calculating damage per round in my homebrew, that mixes d20s and d6s?

I am tweaking my homebrew RPG and trying to determine various Damage Per Round through an Excel spreadsheet. Here are the details: A single players always roll d20 system where 20 is a auto hit and 1 ...
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  • 71
12 votes
2 answers
880 views

Are all the combinations of items in Dungeon Wordle possible?

I recently picked up Dungeon Wordle from the Wordle Jam on itch.io, and I was really impressed... But the way the game 'randomises' what item you get for a given day, is based on the answer to the ...
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8 votes
2 answers
943 views

What is the chance of failing all three saves of the spell Flesh to Stone?

The spell flesh to stone is a powerful way to eliminate a target. However, it calls for multiple saving throws, a complication which makes determining the chance of success or failure challenging. To ...
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8 votes
2 answers
217 views

What comes close to 9-again in V5?

We want to port our old Vampire the Requiem game into V5. What would be a good analogue for the 9-again mechanic? Would it be more dice, would around 2 suffice, or is that already too much? Maybe the ...
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  • 628
10 votes
5 answers
4k views

How strong is this stat generation method? Roll 20d6, drop 2 lowest, assign groups of 3 dice for stats

Is this imbalanced for character generation? Roll 20d6, drop 2 lowest, assign groups of 3 dice for stats. Context: We have tried multiple character generation methods in our group and I have come up ...
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  • 141
5 votes
1 answer
183 views

Restore Balance vs Cutting Words: Which more effective when an opponent has advantage?

I'm preparing a clockwork soul sorcerer/lore bard for a high level one shot (17 lore/ 3 clockwork soul). The combination seems very versatile for a support character. One area of overlap between them ...
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  • 3,358
12 votes
1 answer
379 views

How do Challenge Winners Earn More Coins?

I think I'm having trouble understanding the way the coin economy works in Challenges, or maybe I'm missing something. COINS GENERATED ❍ Each losing Pool generates 1 Bonus Coin per die rolled ...
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8 votes
6 answers
1k views

Modelling "rolling d6 >= charges left expends a charge" mechanics with anydice

You have X charges left. Rolling a d6 equal or over the number of charges left depletes a charge. How many uses do you get out of a starting X charges? e.g. 1 charge, 1 use left. 2 charges, rolling 2 ...
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  • 2,114
15 votes
2 answers
2k views

Is it true that Reckless Attack renders AC boosts less effective?

I saw someone arguing recently that A) Barbarians should always RA. and B) Assuming A) is true ... then it's a waste of time for a Barbarian to try to boost their AC. I assume that the case for B) is ...
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  • 2,305
8 votes
1 answer
591 views

How can I get "Number of dice in pool A higher than highest of pool B" in anydice?

What I'm looking for is this: pools A and B roll Xd6 and Yd6, respectively. The result is determined as follows: The highest roll among all dice is rh, and the pool it comes from is Ph. The other ...
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  • 2,114
15 votes
6 answers
2k views

Seeking a maths formula to determine the number of coins in a treasure hoard, given hoard value

Lots of online generators will gladly spit out hoards that are heavily inclined toward higher-denomination coins, gems, and other, highly-concentrated instruments of wealth; I want to go heavily into ...
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  • 1,808
5 votes
2 answers
233 views

Statistically, how high a roll should I use Empowered Spell to reroll for damage?

Here's the language for the Metamagic Empowered Spell: When you roll damage for a spell, you can spend 1 sorcery point to reroll a number of the damage dice up to your Charisma modifier (minimum of ...
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  • 1,795
14 votes
2 answers
3k views

What is the statistical difference, if there is one, between attacking twice (action and bonus action) and attacking once with advantage?

In our 5e campaign, I'm playing an 8th-level Rogue (Arcane Trickster) with the Crossbow Expert feat, which (among other things) means I can shoot twice in one turn: once as a bonus action and once as ...
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  • 1,795
5 votes
2 answers
597 views

How to calculate the likelihood of success for increasing DC

How would I go about calculating the odds of success someone has, given N total tries at a skill check, a skill modifier of M, ...
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3 votes
4 answers
284 views

What are the probabilities of rolling doubles in a pool of d6s?

I am thinking of designing a ttrpg, and as a dice rolling system I was thinking of a system where players roll a pool of d6s. Any roll that results in multiples of the same number is a success, and is ...
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7 votes
3 answers
1k views

Is Deadly Aim worth it?

Deadly Aim is very similar to Power Attack in PF1, in that it reduces your chance to hit in exchange for some extra damage. In PF2 however the enemies' AC increases together with your attacks, so -2 ...
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7 votes
2 answers
424 views

Adding the probabilities of multiple outcomes in AnyDice

I don't know if this has been answered before. I've certainly looked for similar questions for a few hours, but even if I find similar ones, I still cannot work out the answer to this problem. In a ...
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  • 73
2 votes
1 answer
208 views

Ability increase for extra HD not calculated correctly under the Lycanthrope entry in the Monster Manual?

In the SRD it states: https://www.d20srd.org/srd/improvingMonsters.htm#abilityScoreImprovement Ability Score Improvement Treat monster Hit Dice the same as character level for determining ability ...
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  • 1,204
6 votes
3 answers
2k views

Analyzing a homebrew casting mechanism

Background I'm a DM and setting builder working on creating a new homebrew set of classes/subclasses for my world. The basic in-universe mechanic is that the caster is channeling their energy through ...
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11 votes
3 answers
853 views

What is the average damage of a Potion of Poison?

The potion of poison (DMG p.188) is an uncommon magic item that deals poison damage over time to anyone who drinks it. However, the way it deals damage is rather complicated, with multiple saves and ...
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  • 12.8k
0 votes
2 answers
181 views

Dice probability in variable pools with receding difficulty [closed]

Can't quite wrap my head around how to go about this (outside of brute forcing it with manual calculations, which isn't ideal given variable difficulties and variable numbers of dice) so I figured I'd ...
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  • 1
13 votes
2 answers
659 views

Are There Alternatives to Dice Discussed in any D&D Literature?

On a family camping trip we found that we had left our dice on the kitchen table at home, and we have a family tradition of not using phones or other devices while camping. And yet D&D must be ...
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  • 8,273
5 votes
3 answers
292 views

Anydice: Counting Successes and Rerolling Failures In Dice Pools

I'm trying to model my RPG system in Anydice. The rules are: Roll 3d20. A die that rolls under your stat is a success. If you have advantage, you may reroll a failed die. If you have disadvantage, you ...
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16 votes
2 answers
2k views

'Advantage' or 'Disadvantage' on damage rolls

I am looking at creating a few new categories of weapons just to add a bit more reason to spend money on mundane equipment in the early game. Poor, and Masterwork. My initial idea is that poor weapons ...
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  • 25.8k
14 votes
5 answers
2k views

When performing a group check, is it better to have an even number of creatures?

The rules for group checks say: To make a group ability check, everyone in the group makes the ability check. If at least half the group succeeds, the whole group succeeds. So, for groups of 1 and 2,...
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  • 187k
5 votes
3 answers
630 views

what are the issues with rolling initiative every round, looking for mechanical reasons rather then opinion [closed]

A friend of mine has mentioned he is thinking of trialing rolling initiative at the start of every round in combat, vs 1 roll at the start of combat for his table. This sounds like a really bad idea ...
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  • 6,054
3 votes
2 answers
407 views

How many rounds is persistent damage expected to last?

If you do not spend any actions to deal with it, persistent damage ends if you succeed on a DC 15 flat check. What is the expected duration? (as calculated from the chance of ending it)
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15 votes
5 answers
2k views

Struggling with rolling for stats probability calculation

I tried finding a specific statistic calculator, even tried playing with anydice.com, with no success. My friends love to roll dice, but we also want the same playing field when starting a campaign, ...
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  • 169
4 votes
2 answers
186 views

How do Hard or Extreme rolls vs increasing penalty dice affect the odds of success or failure?

In Call of Cthulhu 7th edition, rolls are made using percentile dice (one standard d10 and one 10s d10). A roll is considered successful if it is less than or equal to a given number for a stat or ...
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  • 6,293
9 votes
1 answer
199 views

What is the Combat Drill's mean damage and self-heat when its extra damage is triggered?

The Combat Drill weapon in Lancer, located on page 155 of the free version, has an unusual (at least within Lancer's system) damage-determination property that has stymied my attempts to calculate its ...
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3 votes
2 answers
344 views

Is it possible to make this die probability work?

My best friend and I are doing a thing for a d&d game that involves potentially destroying the universe. This event will occur rarely, but we want to make it show up randomly (because it’s a ...
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6 votes
1 answer
111 views

How can I calculate expected Stunt Points per attack when FIRST dropping a d6?

I’m trying to determine what the math is if you use the AGE STUNT system, but first roll Xd6 and choose the 2 that you want to keep. Note, the STUNT Die would be rolled at the same time as the Xd6 and ...
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  • 61
22 votes
2 answers
2k views

Roll Xd6, keeping highest value and adding +1 for each duplicate of that value?

I'm making a card/dice game and I'm trying to set something up on Anydice to compare the odds of the dice rolls, but I'm having some trouble wrapping my mind around some of the language Anydice uses. ...
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1 vote
3 answers
993 views

Statistically, when is wielding a Large weapon worth it for a Medium-sized character?

In D&D 5e, according to p. 278 of the Dungeon Master's Guide, if a Medium-sized character uses a Large weapon, its damage dice are doubled, but it causes them to suffer disadvantage on their ...
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  • 12.4k
12 votes
4 answers
4k views

Is this Homebrew Advantage rule broken?

I know about this suggestion. Mine is an even further extension of that, and I'm asking about whether there are any further issues and whether I've fixed Lucky. I find the way 5e handles multiple ...
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  • 2,305
7 votes
2 answers
263 views

What is the probability distribution for CthulhuTech rolls?

I've recently learnt about CthulhuTech, which has a unique dice pool system: CthulhuTech uses a proprietary game system known as "Framewerk" that focuses on a dice pool system. An unusual ...
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3 votes
2 answers
103 views

How to calculate the chances of reaching a certain success level prior to failed channeling?

In Warhammer 4e casters can use channeling in order to gain success level prior to casting a spell. Success levels are essentially for every 10 you exceed the skill number you gain a success level and ...
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4 votes
1 answer
380 views

Modeling a system where you roll Xd20 and take highest, plus the second highest if the first one is a critical, etc

I'm making my own combat/task resolution system (loosely based the advantage mechanic from D&D 5e). In this system a roll with "advantage" is resolved as follows: Roll Xd20 and take ...
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