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Questions tagged [statistics]

Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games. This tag should be used for questions about tabletop game mathematics that relate to mechanics rather than game elements such as skills or attributes, and have relevance to RPGs in particular.

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Looked at a different rolling (3d6, 3d6, average) for D&D characters in AnyDice and the result didn't come out as expected. What am I missing?

One of the historical dice mechanics in AD&D that can be used is: 3d6 twice for each attribute and pick the best of each pair of rolls. Normal 3d6 once gives a mean of 10.50. Rolling two sets of ...
user3055321's user avatar
4 votes
2 answers
360 views

How to plot multiple dice pool series in AnyDice

I would like to draw a graph of this in AnyDice: y-axis: percentage chance of success x-axis: number of D6 dice in the range 1-10 series a: success is at least one 4+ series b: success is at least ...
Matt Barker's user avatar
3 votes
1 answer
184 views

Successive, conditional opposed rolls (anydice)

I am trying to model some probabilities for a pretty basic tabletop RPG mechanic. I have been searching for two days and trying to make this work myself, but my function-fu is weak, so I seek the aid ...
Owen Montgomery's user avatar
8 votes
3 answers
747 views

How to calculate advantage/disadvantage with multiple dice (e.g. 3d6, 2d10, etc.)

How can I calculate 'advantage' and 'disadvantage' when multiple dice are included. For example: the highest 2 of 3d10 the lowest 3 out of 5d6 I'm looking for a general formula, so that I can ...
Jacco's user avatar
  • 453
7 votes
1 answer
1k views

How to simulate d616 on Anydice?

In Marvel Multiverse Role-Playing Game, the players roll d616. It means that they roll 3d6, but: One die has a different color, its 1 counts as a 6 and it's called the Marvel die, which would mean <...
Ciro Luna's user avatar
4 votes
2 answers
119 views

AnyDice - Complicated Stat Distribution

I'm trying to model average stat distributions for characters based on what a friend sent me: Balanced Stat Roll Roll 4d6 drop lowest five times. Count them together and deduct the total from 72. The ...
Cycanis's user avatar
  • 43
21 votes
5 answers
3k views

What is the chance of rolling at least 10 before a 1 on a d20?

I need at least a 10 on a d20. I can roll until I get it, or I get a 1. What is the chance I succeed? I would like to have the general formula, not just for 10. The chance of success on the first try ...
András's user avatar
  • 64.4k
4 votes
2 answers
127 views

How does the odds of rolling at least 1 success change if Skill Grid nodes change from "+2 TN" to "+1 TN -1 Dice"?

The skill tree is brutal. For those who don't know, In Shadowrun 2nd edition, you can use skills you don't have by defaulting it from a skill or attribute you have by moving through the diagram shown ...
Mindwin Remember Monica's user avatar
5 votes
3 answers
265 views

Count successes in pools of stepped dice

I tried to find this but my google-fu fails me. This is a mechanic similar to Blade Runner or Twilight 2000 RPG. For any action, the player rolls 2 dice which could range from 2d6 to 2d12 or anything ...
HugoB's user avatar
  • 125
29 votes
5 answers
6k views

Is "1d10 rerolling 1&2" equivalent to "1d8+2"?

Good old Cyberpunk 2020, 2nd edition, 2nd printing, offers two versions of rolling for statistics to players because point-Buy without rolling is for referees only. They read: Random: Roll 9d10 and ...
Trish's user avatar
  • 44.3k
5 votes
1 answer
402 views

Help with AnyDice for custom system

Can someone please provide guidance on how to make my system work within AnyDice? The gist is: player stats dictate how many dice in a pool of d8s are rolled, if they have gear or skills proficiencies,...
atohmik's user avatar
  • 53
11 votes
2 answers
2k views

Is a Superficial wound actually worse than a Light wound?

An interesting detail of Burning Wheel (Gold Revised) tests is that (unlike some other TTRPG systems) the exponent and the obstacle number are not "symmetric", in the sense that (say) a B4 ...
Søren Løvborg's user avatar
5 votes
1 answer
146 views

Anydice help with irregular dice pool [duplicate]

Here's the gist of it: I roll a number of different size die like 2d6, 2d8 and 1d12, looking for the highest die. I found a nifty Anydice program that helped me understand the probabilities like this. ...
HugoB's user avatar
  • 125
8 votes
2 answers
1k views

How can you calculate the likelihood of getting a set of stats or better when rolling 4d6 drop lowest?

If I have a given set of character stats from rolling with "4d6, drop lowest", how can I calculate the probability of getting that specific result, or better values for each of them? For ...
Nobody the Hobgoblin's user avatar
3 votes
2 answers
100 views

Anydice: Number of successes when dice can be boosted

Trying to run some statistics on anydice and I'm getting an odd result. Figure something must be wrong with my code but I can't find it. My situation is this: Player rolls 4d6 and drops lowest. They ...
Josh Christofferson's user avatar
10 votes
4 answers
817 views

Recursive combined probability for triggering a bonus attack?

I'm trying to determine the average damage per round for a homebrew fighting style, so that I can compare it to other types of combat choices, and see if thing will remain balanced, when we introduce ...
Jacco's user avatar
  • 453
8 votes
1 answer
2k views

How do I calculate the probability for a critical hit, with an expanded critical range, and advantage/disadvantage?

I know the critical hit probability for normal critical range (natural 20) is: normal: 0.05 advantage: 0.0975 disadvantage: 0.0025 But I don't know how to actually calculate this, and consequently, ...
Jacco's user avatar
  • 453
1 vote
1 answer
149 views

How to include pushed roll chances in anydice?

D6 dice pool from 0 to 6 where resolving 0 is rolling 2 dice and counting the lower result only. Rolling 5 or 6 means a hit. Rolling 1 is a mishap. Degrees of Success: Failure: no hits at all Mixed ...
EarendilOrbit's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
76 views

How does success chance change when a certain die result counts as multiple partial successes?

Dice mechanism: count wins (> 4) of [Mod]d6 (AnyDice). Mod ranges from 1 to 10. Difficulty ranges from 1-10, 1 being trivial, 3 being moderate, 5 being difficult, and 6-10 being ever increasingly ...
Fictotum's user avatar
  • 207
7 votes
6 answers
3k views

How can I simulate decreasing randomness even though randomness is increasing?

I am seeking a way to decrease variance as character skill advances. I've considered various mechanisms for dice tests. I have one in particular that does not accomplish this by default, but I like ...
Fictotum's user avatar
  • 207
4 votes
3 answers
613 views

Over time, how does doubling dice on a crit compare vs having another action? [closed]

Basic 5e rules for crits say that you double the values rolled on dice. I'm playing with a homebrew idea where instead of doubling the damage dice you instead get another action, which can also crit. ...
Orionox's user avatar
  • 157
0 votes
1 answer
106 views

Part II of a probability problem I am working on for a mechanism to move tokens on a chart. Part I was two D4 dice. Part II is much different! [closed]

For Part I of this discussion, see this thread: Probability help on rolling two D4 with all doubles counting as zero except double 4s, which count as 4 That dealt with probabilities using two D4 dice, ...
behemothbeer's user avatar
5 votes
2 answers
833 views

Probability help on rolling two D4 with all doubles counting as zero except double 4s, which count as 4

So I have devised a game system involving two D4 being rolled to determine movement on a chart. It works by tabulating the difference between the dice pips on each die, e.g., Die 1=rolls '1' vs Die 2=...
behemothbeer's user avatar
1 vote
3 answers
1k views

How does this 2D6 probability math make sense?

I have a question about understanding the math to a previous question I had posed (answered successfully). Link at the bottom. The question is how does it make sense that rolling a 2D6 Die consisting ...
Keith Plunske's user avatar
2 votes
2 answers
213 views

Using AnyDice.com to calculate Non traditional dice combinations

I am not learned enough to figure this out alone. Not yet at least. I am trying to figure out how to use anydice.com to get probabilities of two different situations with dice. The main question is ...
Keith Plunske's user avatar
1 vote
4 answers
251 views

Producing a similar distribution to 4d6k3 but for the range [-4, 4]

I'm making a fork of D&D 5e (based on the SRD but then customized) and one of the changes I'm making is removing the whole score/modifier distinction and just going with a simple "score == ...
Benjamin T Hall's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
122 views

Help With Trophy Dark and Trophy Dark Risk Roll Probabilities

Has anyone done some basic probabilities on the Risk Roll from Trophy Dark or Trophy Gold? This level of statistics is well beyond my knowledge. Risk Roll A player will build two D6 dice pools. One ...
Steve's user avatar
  • 13
3 votes
4 answers
361 views

Anydice - Roll a d20 under target number but beat an opposed die

Curious about the following Anydice formula. I’d like to know how to calculate what it would look like to roll a d20 UNDER a specific target number (lets say 14 or 10), but also have that d20 still ...
Leberus's user avatar
  • 123
3 votes
2 answers
412 views

Is it possible to combine multiple outputs in AnyDice?

I have a situation where I will be making four attacks that do different amounts of damage over the course of a round. I have the average damage of each of them(including the likelihood of missing ...
SummoningSpark's user avatar
6 votes
2 answers
981 views

How do I calculate probability for the dice mechanic in my custom indie ttrpg?

I am currently working on writing an indie TTRPG based on the "press your luck" style games instead of being based around miniature war games. I am struggling to understand the probabilities ...
Jesse 's user avatar
  • 61
8 votes
2 answers
604 views

AnyDice: Limited exploding dice

I'm trying to write a custom explode function, which has a limit on the number of rerolls available. A basic limit of limiting the number of rerolls per die is easy enough. The problem is trying to ...
dsmith's user avatar
  • 183
8 votes
2 answers
419 views

How to calculate the probability to roll a specific pattern with Y dice and Z rerolls?

I'm working on a dice-heavy RPG, and trying to model a generic AnyDice function to calculate the probability of rolling a specific desired result for dice faces, such as "At least 3 dice with ...
Nimbrod's user avatar
  • 83
3 votes
2 answers
375 views

AnyDice function to reroll one die if any die rolls X

I’m by no stretch of the imagination any sort of programming type, but I’ve been trying to use AnyDice to rank all the possible ways the die rolls can be modified in the board game HeroQuest. The ...
DracRTC's user avatar
  • 31
20 votes
9 answers
4k views

How can I map a single d20 to a number of hits? (use case: Animate Objects)

The Problem Suppose we have a character using Animate Objects (D&D 5e) to animate 10 Tiny objects, and is attacking the same enemy with all of them. According to RAW, you'd make a separate attack ...
Qami's user avatar
  • 479
4 votes
5 answers
1k views

Calculating probabilities from d6 dice pool (Degenesis rules for botches and triggers)

I'm trying to generate a complex probability table for a dice pool with between 1--14 D6. The table will contain the probability of success and of critical failure, given a number of D6 rolled and a ...
ThetaHanse's user avatar
4 votes
2 answers
812 views

How does one Calculate Dual Variable Probability?

Or asked another way: How do we determine the probability of given grapple to succeed? In DnD 3.5 the grapple mechanic relies on double variable randomness in order to determine success or failure. ...
Play Patrice's user avatar
  • 5,076
7 votes
1 answer
251 views

What is the average difference between AC and Touch AC for monsters?

Or asked another way - How much easier is it (typically) for a player to hit touch AC rather than regular AC? This is a supporting question for: Is it a viable tactic to use a flurry of blows monk to ...
Play Patrice's user avatar
  • 5,076
6 votes
3 answers
837 views

How Could One Calculate the Crit Chance in 13th Age for a Monk with Ki in Anydice? (If It Is At All Possible)

In 13th Age a critical is achieved when you roll a natural 20 on a d20. The Monk class has a few features that can fundamentally change its potential to crit. First off, a Monk using bare hands to ...
Stripe_dog's user avatar
9 votes
5 answers
2k views

I need a 'standard array' for a D&D-like homebrew game, but anydice chokes - how to proceed?

So, I'm working on a homebrew RPG that is similar to several FRPs that use 3d6 sorts of starting values for attributes/characteristics. I know how to calculate the standard D&D (5E or other) '...
user3055321's user avatar
2 votes
2 answers
945 views

When does Polearm Master deal more damage than an ASI?

Would a fighter deal more expected damage by picking the Polearm Master feat at any point before they maxed their Strength, or is it better to first always increase your Strength in terms of damage? ...
Nobody the Hobgoblin's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
223 views

AnyDice: Count successes plus a limited number of easier successes

I've been searching around but haven't yet found how to get this average out of AnyDice. Players roll a pool of d6s. Normally, a success is counted on a 4, 5, or 6. However, there's a condition a ...
Jackson Green's user avatar
19 votes
5 answers
3k views

How many rolls of a D20 would you expect to equal or beat (20 - number of tries)?

I have what is chiefly a probability / game-design query, but one with a clear RPG gaming purpose behind it. Assume I have a check in some game system, using a single 20-sided dice, that requires ...
Alexander's user avatar
  • 405
10 votes
1 answer
5k views

In Unearthed Arcana: Expert Classes, changes were made to the Great Weapon Master feat. How does this affect the damage output of Great Weapon Users?

On September 29th, 2022, Playtest material for OneD&D was released for the Expert Class Groups, and included in this unearthed arcana were some planned feats for the new version of Dungeons and ...
Xirema's user avatar
  • 52.7k
13 votes
2 answers
2k views

Statistically, when should you wait to use Sneak Attack on a second attack with advantage?

Assume you have a Fighter/Rogue with one Extra Attack and attack advantage. Your first attack hits, but doesn't crit. Should you apply Sneak Attack, or save it for the second attack which may crit but ...
Ralyx's user avatar
  • 141
7 votes
3 answers
3k views

How often do I need to sing Happy Birthday to myself to survive Space Junk Cyberpunk?

In Space Junk Cyberpunk I can sing Happy Birthday after every third roll to remove one loneliness. Here are the rules: You have three scores: BREAKDOWN (which starts at 0) LONELINESS (which starts ...
AncientSwordRage's user avatar
6 votes
2 answers
1k views

What is the average total ability score bonus for the best of 4 DCC Characters?

I need some math help to determine what an average character that survived a DCC funnel is like. When playing a funnel in Dungeon Crawl Classics, players get 4 characters each. Should they survive, ...
Ponggoleechee's user avatar
15 votes
7 answers
4k views

Rerolling or taking +2

In Fate Core, the game rules for skill resolution involve rolling four six sided dice, and counting faces 1,2 as -1, face 3,4 as 0, faces 5,6 as +1. You then sum up the resulting numbers and add a ...
Nobody the Hobgoblin's user avatar
3 votes
3 answers
2k views

Dice odds of Doubles on 2D6 + D4/D6/D8/D10/D12 and Odds of 1

I have this odd idea for a resolution system and it goes like this. For every roll you will be rolling 2D6 + D*, depending on attributes, etc. against a fixed DC of 11. Rolling an 11 or better gets ...
Erik Amundsen's user avatar
10 votes
6 answers
5k views

How to calculate the added expected damage from critical hits?

When optimizing character builds, it is common to use the average expected damage to estimate damage output. Calculating the average of a single die is simple, fixed modifiers are then added to it to ...
Nobody the Hobgoblin's user avatar
6 votes
2 answers
474 views

Ironsworn meets BitD dice mechanic (with a twist)

I'd like to find the probabilities of a mechanic inspired mainly by Ironsworn. The basic premise is pretty simple and I have a working anydice program that gives me the right results but there's an ...
Naothaniel's user avatar

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