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Results tagged with statistics
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user 62294
Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games. This tag should be used for questions about tabletop game mathematics that relate to mechanics rather than game elements such as skills or attributes, and have relevance to RPGs in particular.
12
votes
When aiming to roll for a 50/50, does the die size matter?
No, it doesn’t matter.
There isn’t really much to say here. As long as you have the same number of even and odd faces on the die, there will be no difference (assuming a fair die).
Again, this assumes …
- 154k
25
votes
What is the ideal way of emulating a full dice set using a single d20?
An Icosahedron has 12 vertices.
Since an icosahedron has 12 vertices, all we need is a method for identifying the vertex which corresponds to a particular result.
Orientation
Each face of a d20 is a t …
- 154k
9
votes
Is it possible to make this die probability work?
!roll 1d21-1
This gives the numbers 1-20 a uniform distribution, each having a 4.76% chance of coming up, and a 4.76% chance of rolling a 0 that destroys the universe. (Or just don’t bother with the “ …
- 154k
23
votes
How often do I need to sing Happy Birthday to myself to survive Space Junk Cyberpunk?
Finding an optimal strategy for a game like this might be missing the point.
You can play the game how you want. But if you choose to engage in an optimal strategy, you are no longer roleplaying, or r …
- 154k
7
votes
Accepted
At what point is a Lifedrinker Warlock's expected damage reduced by Sharpshooter/GWM?
The break even formula for GWM/SS requires a bit of algebra. First, our variables:
\$DAM\$ is average damage per hit before GWM/SS.
\$HIT\$ is bonus to hit before GWM/SS.
\$AC\$ is target armor class …
- 154k
4
votes
How to include successful saves when calculating Fireball's average damage?
Step 1: Failure chance.
First, we need to know the probability of a successful save. This formula uses DC, which is the spell save DC, and MOD, which is whatever modifier gets added to the target crea …
- 154k
26
votes
When performing a group check, is it better to have an even number of creatures?
You are trying to kill a fly with a cannon.
This answer established that when 3 people make a group check, you need two successes to call it a successful group check. We don't need a deep statistical …
- 154k
8
votes
Accepted
Restore Balance vs Cutting Words: Which more effective when an opponent has advantage?
Cutting Words is almost always better, just by the numbers.
This table gives the probability of meeting a given DC with a straight roll compared to advantage minus a Bardic Inspiration die:
DC
Str …
- 154k
2
votes
Statistically, when is wielding a Large weapon worth it for a Medium-sized character?
DM guidance for building custom monsters has nothing to do with player characters.
The intro to the section you quote says:
The Monster Manual contains hundreds of ready-to-play monsters, but it does …
- 154k
15
votes
Is this Homebrew Advantage rule broken?
With one source of disadvantage, it takes 6 sources of advantage to have the same chance at a natural 20 as a straight roll.
Using this short anydice program:
ADV: 0
DIS: 0
output {1+DIS}@(1+ADV+DIS) …
- 154k
8
votes
Accepted
What is the average damage of a Potion of Poison?
We have to build this case-by-case. First, we will build the basic progression of the damage dice assumming we fail the first two saves, then build the full case backwards from there.
Here's is the or …
- 154k
34
votes
What deals more damage on a weapon, +1 to hit or +1 to damage?
It depends.
As explained in greater detail below, +1 to hit is better than +1 to damage when the following inequality is true:
$$21+H-D<AC$$
Where:
\$D\$ = Average damage on a hit (before accounting …
- 154k