Questions tagged [statistics]
Statistics deals with the mathematics of probability-based games. This tag should be used for questions about tabletop game mathematics that relate to mechanics rather than game elements such as skills or attributes, and have relevance to RPGs in particular.
394 questions
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AnyDice: Count successes plus a limited number of easier successes
I've been searching around but haven't yet found how to get this average out of AnyDice.
Players roll a pool of d6s. Normally, a success is counted on a 4, 5, or 6. However, there's a condition a ...
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How many rolls of a D20 would you expect to equal or beat (20 - number of tries)?
I have what is chiefly a probability / game-design query, but one with a clear RPG gaming purpose behind it.
Assume I have a check in some game system, using a single 20-sided dice, that requires ...
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In Unearthed Arcana: Expert Classes, changes were made to the Great Weapon Master feat. How does this affect the damage output of Great Weapon Users?
On September 29th, 2022, Playtest material for OneD&D was released for the Expert Class Groups, and included in this unearthed arcana were some planned feats for the new version of Dungeons and ...
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Statistically, when should you wait to use Sneak Attack on a second attack with advantage?
Assume you have a Fighter/Rogue with one Extra Attack and attack advantage. Your first attack hits, but doesn't crit. Should you apply Sneak Attack, or save it for the second attack which may crit but ...
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How often do I need to sing Happy Birthday to myself to survive Space Junk Cyberpunk?
In Space Junk Cyberpunk I can sing Happy Birthday after every third roll to remove one loneliness.
Here are the rules:
You have three scores:
BREAKDOWN (which starts at 0)
LONELINESS (which starts ...
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What is the average total ability score bonus for the best of 4 DCC Characters?
I need some math help to determine what an average character that survived a DCC funnel is like.
When playing a funnel in Dungeon Crawl Classics, players get 4 characters each. Should they survive, ...
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Rerolling or taking +2
In Fate Core, the game rules for skill resolution involve rolling four six sided dice, and counting faces 1,2 as -1, face 3,4 as 0, faces 5,6 as +1. You then sum up the resulting numbers and add a ...
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Dice odds of Doubles on 2D6 + D4/D6/D8/D10/D12 and Odds of 1
I have this odd idea for a resolution system and it goes like this.
For every roll you will be rolling 2D6 + D*, depending on attributes, etc. against a fixed DC of 11. Rolling an 11 or better gets ...
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How to calculate the added expected damage from critical hits?
When optimizing character builds, it is common to use the average expected damage to estimate damage output. Calculating the average of a single die is simple, fixed modifiers are then added to it to ...
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Ironsworn meets BitD dice mechanic (with a twist)
I'd like to find the probabilities of a mechanic inspired mainly by Ironsworn.
The basic premise is pretty simple and I have a working anydice program that gives me the right results but there's an ...
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How to make a good height and weight table? [closed]
I am wondering how I would make a good height and weight table that has balanced ranges across a range of around 6-8 feet. When I have tried making a table, it always ended up being too light for ...
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Is there any estimate of average damage output per turn for PCs by level?
For monsters, we have the guidance of how much damage they are expected to deal in a round based on their CR from the DMG on page 274. In contrast, there is no such explicit guidance for expected PC ...
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How can you map the probability of 2d6 onto a standard poker deck?
One of the projects I'm working on in my free time is the adaptation of the Urban Shadows milieu to a live-action environment. (In 2022, this is what one might charitably call a long-term goal.) One ...
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As Nemesis Chi increases, how do the odds of player victory decrease?
Let's assume for the sake of argument that I am not out to TPK my players when we sit down to play a narrative game based on martial arts movies. That said, it would be nice to be able to engage in ...
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Is there a probabilistic difference in player success between the two methods of fighting a Nemesis?
The Wushu rulebook:
Mono-A-Mono
Speaking of diverted dice, it’s not fair for groups of players to gang
up on a single Nemesis. Rolling more dice than the other guy is a
serious advantage, so your ...
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How long can my character survive without sleep?
I got into a discussion over Discord this morning about whether the Dream spell could be used to kill someone. The claim was, if I remember correctly, that it would only take 6 days/nights because ...
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What's the closest I can get to simulating critical hits with a dice pool, without relying on the total sum?
I'm making a game that uses a dice pool rolling system (for my purpose it's always a d12 and no other dice), and I wanted to figure out if making a 'critical hit' mechanic was possible, that is ...
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Counterspelling with a lower-level spell
I'm curious about the utility of counterspelling with low level spells, if one chooses to feat for it. Particularly the feasibility of keeping low-level spells prepared specifically for use as ...
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What percentage of Call of Cthulhu characters start drowning on average?
In Call of Cthulhu 7e, it is possible to call for a swimming check that can result in drowning. Assume that 80% of characters have a 20 in swim, and 20% of characters have a 60 in swim. Assume that ...
user71562
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Is it easy to drown in Call of Cthulhu 7e?
Based on the rules I have read on Call of Cthulhu it seems like drowning in this game is very easy. The skill used to avoid drowning rarely has points put into it. How can I make water less lethal ...
user71562
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Anydice Statistics for the Favored by Fortune system
Quick question about how to do the following in Anydice. I’m trying to figure out what the statistics are for a game called Household currently on Kickstarter that utilizes the Favored by Fortune ...
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Determining dice pools for given percent chances of numbers of successes
The Question
I'm working with my friend on a new (we think) dice system for a homebrew RPG (soon to hit the TTRPG world by storm, no doubt). A design goal is that players' statistical success rate at ...
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Anydice: Neon City Overdrive type eliminative dice pool BUT danger dice cancel equal to AND less than
The game Neon City Overdrive uses the following resolution mechanic
for checks:
create a pool of Action Dice and (possibly) another pool of differently-colored Danger Dice (all d6, generally up to 5 ...
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Anydice: two-colored polyhedral dice pool
I trying to calculate probabilities for this dice mechanic, but I'm not sure that anydice can calculate that at all. The dice pool mechanic works like this:
Players assemble a dice pool with green and ...
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Anydice: for XdY(Z+), what are the odds to get the same numbers on all successful faces for 2 success, 3 success, 4 success
For a count success dice pool system, what is the anydice formula to show the probabilities that the rolled success are all the same number?
example: 6d6(4+), what are the chance to have 2 success ...
user77001
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1
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Anydice: for XdY(Z+), what are the odds for at least doubles in Z+?
For a dice pool of 6d6(4+), where any dice showing 4 or 5 or 6 is a success, what is the anydice formula to have the probability of at least a double among the 4+ dice?
The goal is to know the chance ...
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Anydice: a pool where stress dice cancel out action dice of equal or lower value and return the number and value of action dice remaining in the pool?
I've seen a couple of other posts with similar but distinctly different dice canceling mechanics so I figured I would ask for a hand.
The mechanic is this:
Players roll a pool of Xd6 Action dice and ...
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What is the net effect from advantage or disadvantage on to hit chance? [duplicate]
For many character build calculations, it is valuable to know how much to hit chance is added by advantage (or removed by disadvantage). This differs depending on the number required for a hit on the ...
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How can I compare the dice ranges for my game features to understand the minimums and maximums?
I have a lot of weapons on my own system and I want to split on four categories like, common, uncommon and stuff.
I want to split them by how good these weapons perform damage wise. But I have ...
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What information is available about the intended mathematics of D&D?
D&D 5e was heavily play-tested prior to its release. I have heard (but have not verified) that, at low levels, the hit rate of the attack rolls of PCs was intentionally optimized to be ...
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In determining the average damage of a single-turn string of two handed attacks, how should I add the average damage of my Sneak Attack?
The question relates to statistics, and how you add up odds.
I'll spare you my function for determining the odds of a die roll. Assume for the sake of simplicity that the foe's AC is 11, and my attack ...
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What are the odds of being able to disrupt a spellcaster?
What are the chances that the opponent is able to get their attack in to disrupt a spellcaster as a function of casting time and weapon speed?
Assume the opponent will hit, and use this summary of the ...
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How do I calculate the probabilities of two consecutive success results in AnyDice?
I know that rolling with disadvantage gives you a negative bonus in between 1 and 2, that's easy to calculate in anydice.com but how can I estimate the increasing in difficulty that adds an extra roll?...
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What deals more damage on a weapon, +1 to hit or +1 to damage?
Background: I'm introducing masterwork items for 5e as a homebrew rule, both to help players spend surplus gold on something useful when they cannot buy magic items, and to make shopping a bit more ...
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How can I implement a "passive stealth" that is mathematically equivalent to rolling stealth vs. passive perception?
I think the metagaming problem with rolling for stealth is fairly well-known: once the player rolls for stealth at the start of their sneaking, they know how high they rolled and might, consciously or ...
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What is the estimated DPR for a hunter ranger?
I was wondering what the average amount of a damage per round by a human ranger with the Hunter subclass should be at each level?
The answer should not include bonuses with magic items and should be ...
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Is it better to make two separate contested rolls or one with advantage?
I'm trying to model the benefit of enemies working together in contests with my PCs.
Assume I have a pair of enemies that are attempting to shove a PC. They are smart enough for one to use the Help ...
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Is it mathematically better to roll one attack or two with disadvantage?
Rolling one attack with advantage is worse than rolling two normal attacks (because we have two attack rolls either way, but only one vs two chances of dealing dmaage).
However, what of the inverse ...
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What are the odds of rolling high all the time?
So, I have a suspicion that a player in an online game is... being creative in the way they call their dice rolls. I play with them in several games, and in 2 games I have convinced the DM to enforce ...
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How do I get the sum of highest rolled dice normalized for dice count?
My goal it to model a system where you roll xd10 and get the sum of the highest result you got (so "6, 3, 5, 5" becomes 6 and "4, 4, 2, 4" becomes 12), and then see how each extra ...
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Can I get some help on calculating damage per round in my homebrew, that mixes d20s and d6s?
I am tweaking my homebrew RPG and trying to determine various Damage Per Round through an Excel spreadsheet. Here are the details:
A single players always roll d20 system where 20 is a auto hit and 1 ...
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Are all the combinations of items in Dungeon Wordle possible?
I recently picked up Dungeon Wordle from the Wordle Jam on itch.io, and I was really impressed...
But the way the game 'randomises' what item you get for a given day, is based on the answer to the ...
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What is the chance of failing all three saves of the spell Flesh to Stone?
The spell flesh to stone is a powerful way to eliminate a target. However, it calls for multiple saving throws, a complication which makes determining the chance of success or failure challenging. To ...
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What comes close to 9-again in V5?
We want to port our old Vampire the Requiem game into V5.
What would be a good analogue for the 9-again mechanic? Would it be more dice, would around 2 suffice, or is that already too much?
Maybe the ...
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How strong is this stat generation method? Roll 20d6, drop 2 lowest, assign groups of 3 dice for stats
Is this imbalanced for character generation?
Roll 20d6, drop 2 lowest, assign groups of 3 dice for stats.
Context:
We have tried multiple character generation methods in our group and I have come up ...
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Restore Balance vs Cutting Words: Which more effective when an opponent has advantage?
I'm preparing a clockwork soul sorcerer/lore bard for a high level one shot (17 lore/ 3 clockwork soul). The combination seems very versatile for a support character. One area of overlap between them ...
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How do Challenge Winners Earn More Coins?
I think I'm having trouble understanding the way the coin economy works in Challenges, or maybe I'm missing something.
COINS GENERATED
❍ Each losing Pool generates 1 Bonus Coin per die rolled ...
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Modelling "rolling d6 >= charges left expends a charge" mechanics with anydice
You have X charges left. Rolling a d6 equal or over the number of charges left depletes a charge. How many uses do you get out of a starting X charges?
e.g. 1 charge, 1 use left. 2 charges, rolling 2 ...
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Is it true that Reckless Attack renders AC boosts less effective?
I saw someone arguing recently that
A) Barbarians should always RA.
and
B) Assuming A) is true ... then it's a waste of time for a Barbarian to try to boost their AC.
I assume that the case for B) is ...
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How can I get "Number of dice in pool A higher than highest of pool B" in anydice?
What I'm looking for is this: pools A and B roll Xd6 and Yd6, respectively.
The result is determined as follows:
The highest roll among all dice is rh, and the pool it comes from is Ph.
The other ...
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